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健康长寿是人类社会共同的美好追求和发展趋势,却对养老金体系产生不利影响。当前,长寿风险已成为全球养老金体系面临的重要系统性风险,在我国却没有引起足够重视。本文借助国际上金融机构偿付能力资本需求的思想,首先将长寿风险对我国城镇职工基本养老保险的冲击效应进行界定,并通过联立有限数据双随机Lee-Carter死亡率模型的预测值与城镇职工养老金领取水平的预测值,评估了未来36年长寿风险对我国城镇职工养老保险的冲击效应,最后进行不同改革政策的模拟和敏感性分析。结果显示,长寿风险对我国城镇职工养老保险的冲击效应十分明显,且这种冲击效应受延迟退休年龄和养老金调整指数的影响显著,受城镇化率等其他因素的影响相对有限。
Abstract：Health and longevity are the common pursuit and development trends of the human society. But they do have adverse effects on the pension system. Nowadays,the longevity risk has become an important systemic risk which is faced by the global pension system,while it has not attracted sufficient attention in China. With the international financial institutions' thought about the solvency capital requirements,this paper defines the shock effect of the longevity risk to China's basic pension insurance for urban employees firstly. Then by using the predictive values of the limited data TwoStochastic Lee-Carter Model and the predictive values of the pension levels for urban employees simultaneously,it evaluates the shock effects of longevity risk to China urban employees' pension insurance for the next 36 years. Finally,it gives the simulations about different reforming policies and the sensitivity analysis. The results show that there are very obvious shock effects of the longevity risk to the China's basic pension insurance for urban employees. And the effects of such shocks are affected by delayed retirement age and pension adjustment index significantly,but relatively limited by other factors like urbanization rate and so on.
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(1)数据来源:World Population Prospects:The 2015 Revision,http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/.
(1)依据财政部公布的2015年社会保险基金预算,在剔除财政补贴后,2015年我国养老保险亏空将超过3000亿元。
(2)长寿风险度量对应的一定概率通常取95%或99.5%,本文取值为95%,即对长寿风险的不确定性,有95%的概率包含在预测区间中。95%的概率包含了预期寿命不利变动的绝大部分。
(1)本文的评估年为2014年。
(2)假定评估年城镇职工分性别年龄领取人口与分性别年龄退休人口具有相同的分布。
(1)虽然国发[2005]38号文件对城镇职工基本养老金的发放标准有明确的规定,但实际操作中并不是严格按照规定执行的,而是在假定未来人均增长率的条件下,以历史人均养老金领取水平为基础对未来进行调整。
(2)、(3)数据来源于人力资源与社会保障部《2014年度人力资源和社会保障事业发展统计公报》。
(1)最低年龄10岁的设定充分保证了2050年之前测算中所用到的人口基数均可被预测,并对超过100岁的年龄组进行合并,对不足100岁的年龄组进行扩展。
(2)、(3)、(4)2015—2050年中间年份的数据采用线性插值法处理。
基本信息:
DOI：10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2016.05.005
中图分类号:F842.67
引用信息:
[1]王晓军,姜增明.长寿风险对城镇职工养老保险的冲击效应研究[J].统计研究,2016,33(05):43-50.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2016.05.005.
基金信息:
国家社科基金重大项目“我国养老保障体系应对人口老龄化挑战的对策研究”(13&ZD164);; 国家自然科学基金项目“社会保障预算管理研究”(71173230)的资助
2016-05-15
2016-05-15