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本文采用2016年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,运用半参数Cox回归对我国流动人口的生育间隔进行分析。结果发现:第一,不仅人口流动会延迟女性的生育时间,而且受教育水平的提高对女性的婚育间隔、第一次生育间隔均有显著的延迟效应。第二,结婚年龄越大,婚后越有可能选择尽早生育,且不同初婚时间对生育间隔的影响差异明显。同时,参加医疗保险对婚育间隔存在显著的缩短效应,而参加生育保险对生育间隔存在显著的延迟效应。越有经济实力以及在工作中担任重要职位的女性越有可能扩大生育间隔。而随着婚育间隔的扩大,第一次生育间隔反而会缩短。第三,初育子女的性别对第一次生育间隔的影响存在显著差异,即若初次生育为女性,则第一次生育间隔会缩短。第四,放开生育政策虽无法促使女性缩短婚育间隔,但会明显缩短第一次生育间隔。
Abstract：This paper examines the data of migrant population dynamic monitoring survey in China 2016.And we use semi-parametric Cox regression to analyze the birth interval of the migrant population. The study results show that,firstly,not only the population turnover will delay the childbearing time,but also the education level will have a significant effect on the birth interval of the first and second child. Secondly,the older when the women married,the more likely it is to choose to give birth as soon as possible after married,and the impact of different marriage is obvious. At the same time,Participation in medical insurance has a significant shortening effect on the interval of the first child,and participation in maternity insurance has a significant delay effect on the birth interval. That has more economically powerful or holds important positions in their jobs,the more likely to extend the interval of birth. But with the extension of the interval between first childbirth,the interval of the second child will be shortened. In addition,the gender of the first child will have a significant influence on the birth interval of the second child. That is,if the first child is a girl,the birth timebetween first and second child will be shortened. According to the analysis of the policy effect,the birth policy cannot promote the birth of the first child,but it will obviously shorten the time of the second child.
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(1)据国家统计局全国人口变动抽样调查的结果显示,2017年我国新增人口总量1723万人,人口出生率较2016年有所下降,仅为12. 43%,同时还预测至2022年,我国人口出生率将下降至10%左右。
(1)由于本文只考察流动人口群体在流入地的生育间隔及其相关影响因素,并未对流动人口返回原住地后的反向影响进行分析,因此并未考虑扩散效应与选择效应的影响。
(1)该调查利用分层、多阶段与规模成比例的PPS方法进行抽样,所调查的目标群体为在本地居住满一个月及以上的非本区(县、市)户口的15周岁及以上的流入人口。调查内容涉及家庭成员与收支情况、流动与就业状况、居留与落户意愿以及婚育情况等方面。
(2)样本需要同时满足三个条件:年龄超过39岁、二孩出生于2013年及以后、一孩与二孩年龄差大于等于15岁。
(3)子女的具体照料人主要包括父母、祖辈、其他亲属、邻居和朋友、老师托管以及无人照顾,我们将由父母和祖辈看管的视为有人照料,其他情况视为无人照料;对于女性的主要职业分为以下三类:国家机关、企事业单位负责人或公务员、经商/个体户以及其他职业,而其他职业包含了各行业的服务业人员、生产人员以及无固定职业等。
基本信息:
DOI：10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2018.10.006
中图分类号:C924.2
引用信息:
[1]赵昕东,李翔.流动人口女性个体的生育间隔影响因素研究——基于2016年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据[J].统计研究,2018,35(10):69-80.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2018.10.006.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国人口老龄化进程与劳动生产率:检验、预测与政策选择”(71573093)的资助
2018-10-25
2018-10-25