统计研究

本文使用1978—2014年我国居民消费数据,研究城乡居民的消费总量、收支结构、平均消费倾向、边际消费倾向和恩格尔系数等差异,并选取31个省市区的面板数据构建城乡居民消费模型进行分析。结果表明:1城乡居民消费行为可分为三个阶段,城乡差距经历两个轮回,现处在第二轮扩张期。2相对而言,农村居民收入低消费率高支出结构固化,对物价变动有滞后性和拖尾性,近期在城镇居民平均消费倾向持续走低时平稳走高。3城镇居民自发消费与边际消费倾向大致呈反比,同一地区的城乡居民自发消费与边际消费倾向相关性不强。本文建议,降低城乡交通通信类支出,扩大城乡家庭设备及用品类市场和农村文教娱乐类市场,提高农村居民健康及医疗保障水平。

By using the consumer data in China from 1978 to 2014,it discusses the differences between the urban and rural residents in the aspect of consumption,income structure,average consume propensity,marginal consume propensity and Engel coefficient,and builds the urban and rural consumption model. The results show that urban and rural residents' consumption behavior can be divided into three stages,and the gap between them is the second round expansion now. In contrast,rural residents have lower income,higher consumption rate,more fixed expenditure structure,and less sensitive and last longer to price changes,and their the average propensity to consume become higher steady when urban residents' have been falling for a long time. Besides,spontaneous consumption of urban residents is inversely proportional to the marginal propensity to consume,and the correlation between the spontaneous consumption and marginal propensity to consume in the same city is not strong. It suggests to reduce the expenditure of transport and communications,expand urban and rural household facilities and articles market and rural education,culture and recreation market,and improve the level of rural residents' health and health care.