统计研究

针对我国汇率和利率制度的特殊安排,本文首先建立一般均衡理论模型以体现我国特定的经济结构。我们证明,在外生变量的约束下,我国存在一个产出、价格、货币供给、出口和进口相互作用的一般均衡系统。本文以理论模型作为指导,建立结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型以估计系统的动态调节特征。最后通过脉冲响应分析,分析了人民币升值对宏观经济的动态影响。结论是:升值对国际贸易的作用过程呈现"J曲线"效应;升值减少了内生货币发行并确有助于抑制价格水平;升值在短期内降低了总产出,但长期内则稍有助于产出增长;升值的影响具有长期性和持久性。本文还阐述了升值动态作用的经济学机理,并据此提出了相关政策建议。

Regarding to the special arrangements of exchange rate regime and interest rate system in China,the paper sets up a general-equilibrium model to highlight the specific structure of China's macro economy.It's proved that there exists a general equilibrium system among output,price,monetary supply,export and import under exogenous constraints.We then use the SVAR(Structural Vector Auto Regression) technique to estimate the system's dynamics feature under the guidance of the theoretical model.Finally,with impulse-response analysis,we examine the dynamic effects of RMB exchange rate appreciation.It is concluded that RMB appreciation exhibits a "J-curve" effect;appreciation decreases endogenous monetary supply and does help to suppress inflation;appreciation reduces output in the short run,while it mildly increases output growth in the long run;appreciation effect tends to last chronically and permanently.The economic rationales of dynamic appreciation effects are also expatiated and policy orientations are put forth accordingly.