统计研究

本文在国民经济核算理论的基础上,根据联合国最新的国民账户体系和我国第七、第八次森林资源清查数据,编制了2008—2013年森林碳汇经济核算的实物量、价值量账户,并探索性编制了森林碳汇资产负债表。核算结果表明:2008—2013年我国森林碳实物储量增加,年均增长约为2.51%。在价值量核算上,森林碳储量的价值则表现为减少,年均减少0.37%,价值量减少的原因主要是由于碳汇市场价格变化和疏林地碳汇量减少。根据森林资源清查数据还编制了碳汇资产负债表,结果表明,森林碳汇资产表现为净流出,2008—2013年资产净流出量约为107.62亿元。另外,由于统计标准、分类等原因,资产负债表平衡存在一定的误差,误差率为4.35%,小于5%的统计要求,说明编制森林碳汇资产负债表是可行的,开展碳汇经济核算是必要的。

According to the latest forest resources inventory data,this paper establishes physical and monetary accounts of forest carbon sinks,and exploratory establishes its balance sheet from 2008 to 2013 in China on the basis of national economic accounting theory and the latest System of National Accounts of United Nations. The results show that forest carbon stocks in physics have increased from 2008 to 2013,the average annual growth rate is about 2. 51%. Due to the decline of carbon sinks market price and the carbon sequestration in open forest land,the value of forest carbon stocks in monetary has decreased,by 0. 37% per year. The study also built the carbon balance sheet based on the forest resources inventory data recently. The results also demonstrate that forest carbon assets are net outflows,which value 10. 762 billion yuan from 2008 to 2013. In addition,there is some errors in balance calculation in the balance sheet because of the statistical standards,classification and other reasons. The error rate is about 4. 35%,less than 5% of the statistical requirements,which indicates that establishment forest carbon sinks accounts is possible,and accounting of values of forest carbon sinks according to the existing data is necessary in China.