统计研究

本文在系统回顾国内外文献的基础上,根据我国实际情况确定了永续盘存法所依赖的四个关键参数—固定资产投资建设周期、固定资产价格加权指数、加权折旧年限和初始资本存量,并根据各城市行政区变化调整了统计数据,估算了1996—2009年中国286个地级及以上等级城市资本存量。根据不同折旧年限计算得到的两组资本存量序列数据可以作为我国城市资本存量数据的上下限。通过比较本文与文献中资本-产出比和估计生产函数可确认本文估算的资本存量数据是比较可靠的,为后续应用研究奠定了初步的数据基础。

Based on a systemic review of literature and the real situation in China,this paper carefully determined the four key parameters that the perpetual inventory method relies on,adjusted city statistics to the changes of jurisdiction,and estimated the capital stocks of 286 prefecture or higher-level cities in China.The two series using different depreciation lives may be considered the high and low limits of the stocks in the cities.Comparing the capital-output ratios of this study with those in the literature and estimating production functions,we showed that the estimated capital stock data was reliable.The estimations provided a preliminary base of data for applied research in the future.