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文章将高铁开通视作准实验,基于2003-2017年我国281个地级及以上城市的面板数据,采用多期DID模型实证检验了高铁开通的"污染减排"与"提质增效"效应。研究结论显示:(1)高铁开通具有"既减排,又增效"的经济效应,在缓解可能存在的内生性问题及一系列稳健性检验后结论仍然成立。(2)分地区的估计结果显示,高铁开通的"减排"效应在中、西部地区得到验证,西部地区更为明显;而高铁开通的"增效"效应在三大区域皆得到验证,且"增效"效应从东部→中部→西部依次递减。(3)分城市规模的估计结果显示:高铁开通的经济效应仅在小城市中未能得到验证,在中等及以上城市中皆得到有效验证,且伴随城市规模的扩大,高铁开通的经济效应愈加明显。(4)机制研究表明:外商投资是高铁开通"减排"与"增效"效应的有效传导途径;技术进步仅是高铁开通"减排"效应的有效传导途径;而人口集聚与人力资本仅是高铁开通"增效"效应的有效传导途径。
Abstract：The article treats opening high-speed rail as a quasi-experiment,based on the panel data of 281 cities and municipalities in China from 2003 to 2017,and uses time-varying DID model to empirically test the emission reduction and efficiency enhancement effects of high-speed rail. The conclusion of the study shows that: 1) the opening of the high-speed rail has the economic effects of both emission reduction and efficiency enhancement. After alleviating possible endogenous problems and a series of robustness tests,the conclusion is still true. 2) The estimated results by region show that the emission reduction effect of high-speed rail operation has been verified in the central and western regions of China,and the western region is more obvious. The efficiency enhancement effect has been verified in all three major regions,and the eastern region is the most obvious,the central region the second,and the western region the lowest. 3) Estimated results by city size show that the economic effects of opening high-speed rail have not been verified only in small cities,but verified in medium and above cities. And with the expansion of the city scale,the economic effect of high-speed rail has become more and more obvious. 4) The mechanism study shows that foreign direct investment is an effective transmission route of emission reduction and efficiency enhancement effect of high-speed railway. Technological progress is only an effective transmission route for the emission reduction effect,while population concentration and human capital are only the effective transmission route for the efficiency enhancement effect.
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(1)http://www.scio.gov.cn/34473/34474/Document/1680763/1680763.htm。
(1)传统的DID模型适用于政策实施时间为某一具体时点的准实验，有关高铁开通的经济学文献中很多学者自行设定某一个年份作为政策实施点，导致样本损失，也难以反映我国高铁发展的现实情况。
(2)原铁道部部长傅志寰在《我国高铁发展历程与相关思考》(《中国铁路》2017年第8期)一文中指出秦沈客运专线是我国高铁的开路先锋，是我国第一条高速铁路。
(1)邓小平在1988年提出了“两个大局”思想:一个大局是沿海地区要对外开放，使得该地区较快地先发展起来，从而带动内地更好地发展;另一个大局是，发展到一定的时候，要求沿海拿出更多力量来帮助内地发展。
(1)国家统计局发布的《生产性服务业分类(2019)》将生产性服务业划分为:研发设计与其他技术服务、信息服务、金融服务、货物运输、通用航空生产、仓储和邮政快递服务、生产性租赁服务、节能与环保服务、商务服务、生产性支持服务、批发与贸易经纪代理服务、人力资源管理与职业教育培训服务等10大类。考虑到指标统计口径的一致性，本文选择金融业、租赁和商务服务业、交通运输业、信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业、科学研究、技术服务和地质勘查业等作为生产性服务业的代表性行业。
(1)下文进行的实证检验皆引入了全部控制变量，因此选取模型4和模型8进行共同趋势检验。
(1)本文也进行了1期与3期滞后处理，估计结果与滞后2期一致，限于篇幅本文未作报告，感兴趣的读者可以来信索取。
(1)基于地缘与经济因素，本文在国家统计局四大经济区域划分基础上，将东北地区的辽宁省划入东部地区，吉林省和黑龙江省划入中部地区。因此，东部地区主要包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南等11个省份的101个城市;中部地区主要包括山西、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南、吉林和黑龙江等8个省份的100个城市;西部地区主要包括内蒙古、广西、重庆、四川、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏和新疆等12个省份的80个城市。
(1)实际利用外商直接投资额原始数据以美元计价，本文采用我国国家统计局官网公布的历年平均汇率将其折算为人民币计价。
(1)三大专利主要包括:发明专利、实用新型专利与外观设计型专利。
基本信息:
DOI：10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2021.02.003
中图分类号:X73;F532;F124
引用信息:
[1]王群勇,陆凤芝.高铁开通的经济效应:“减排”与“增效”[J].统计研究,2021,38(02):29-44.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2021.02.003.
基金信息:
教育部人文社会科学项目“智能化对制造业绿色创新绩效的影响机理和政策设计研究”(20YJC790161)
2021-01-28
2021-01-28
2021-01-28