统计研究

准确测算劳动报酬占比变动趋势,深入分析其变动原因并给出相应的政策建议,是破解收入分配领域发展不平衡、不充分问题进而实现共享发展的一项基础性研究工作。本文充分考虑我国劳动报酬核算口径两次重大变更的现实情况,借助两个鉴别准则和多种估算方法对各省份劳动报酬数据进行核算口径甄别与修正调整,在真正完整意义的核算口径下重新测算了1993—2016年省份层面的劳动报酬占比。在此基础上,构建省份面板数据模型来剖析我国各省份劳动报酬占比变动背后的基本规律,揭示了导致劳动报酬占比先下降后上升的决定因素的变化。结果显示:(1)修正调整后数据更加平滑稳健、更具反周期特征,数值反转时间也更为清晰。(2)在1993—2016年完整样本期间,第三产业增加值占比、政府财政支出占GDP比重对我国劳动报酬占比的变动具有显著的同向影响,外商直接投资占比则具有显著的反向影响。(3)在1993—2011年劳动报酬占比下降阶段和2011—2016年劳动报酬占比上升阶段,第三产业增加值占比对劳动报酬占比变动均具有显著的同向影响,其他因素则呈现差异化影响。上述结论具有重要的启示意义。

It is a fundamental research work which cannot be ignored in the process of Solving the problem of"imbalanced and inadequate"in the field of income distribution and then to achieve the concept of"shared development"to accurately measure the labor share and its changing trend,and to deeply analyze the reasons behind the changes,and then to give relevant policy suggestions. In this paper,we fully consider the reality of the two major changes in the accounting caliber of labor remuneration in China,and with the help of two identification criteria and various estimation methods,the provincial labor remuneration data were examined and distinguished and then were revised and adjusted. Further,we re-estimate the labor share of provincial level in the real meaning of accounting caliber from 1993 to 2016. On this basis,we construct the provincial panel model to dissect the rule and the determinants behind the changes of the labor share in China,to reveal the changes of determinants behind the fall and rise of the labor share. The results show:(1)After the revision and adjustment,the provincial weighted average labor share is more smooth and steady,more anti cycle characteristics. And thetime of numerical inversion is also clearer.(2)During the whole sample period in 1993—2016,the increase of the proportion of the third industrial added value and government expenditure accounted for the proportion of GDP have significant effects on the changes of labor share on the same direction. But the increase of the foreign direct investment proportion has a significant reverse effect.(3)In the decline stage of the labor share in 1993—2011 and the rising stage of labor share in 2011—2016,the increase of proportion of the third industrial added value has significant effects on the changes of labor share on the same direction to all of the two stages.However,other factors have different effects between the decline stage and the rising stage of the labor share.To summarize,these conclusions have important enlightening significance.