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2020年以来，突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情给经济社会运行带来严重冲击，居民消费大幅下滑，促进居民消费加快恢复对保持经济稳定增长和构建新发展格局具有重要意义。本文利用2018年12月至2019年5月和2019年12月至2020年5月国家统计局开展的全国住户调查数据和2020年5月开展的关于居民消费的重点调查数据，构建双重差分（DID）模型，深入研究疫情对居民消费的影响程度及其时间变化趋势，以及疫情影响居民消费各项因素的贡献大小，探讨疫情影响居民消费的内在机制和途径。研究表明，疫情暴发后的17周内（2020年1月20日至5月中旬），现金口径的居民消费支出平均下降19.5%，疫情暴发后第1周居民消费支出增加，第2周至4周内下降最为严重，第5周开始明显反弹并保持波动恢复态势，但至5月中旬仍未恢复到正常增长路径。消费项目限制因素、收入下降因素、风险意识上升因素和消费场景变化因素对居民消费平均降幅的贡献率分别为29.6%、29.4%、15.9%和13.0%。居民收入以外的因素，即疫情对经济社会环境和居民消费心理的影响，是疫情暴发后居民消费下降的主要影响因素。
Abstract：The sudden outbreak of Covid-19 epidemic in late January 2020 has brought serious impact to the economic and social operation, and the household consumption has declined sharply. It is of great significance to accelerate the recovery of household consumption to maintain stable economic growth and build a new development pattern. Based on the data of the National Household Survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics of China from December 2018 to May 2019 and December 2019 to May 2020respectively, and the special survey data on household consumption conducted in May 2020, this paper constructs a difference-in-difference(DID) model to study the impact of the epidemic on household consumption and its time trend, as well as the contribution of various factors of the epidemic on household consumption to explore the internal mechanism of the impact of the epidemic on household consumption.The result shows that in the 17 weeks(from January 20 to mid-May) after the outbreak of the epidemic, the consumption expenditure of residents decreases by 19.5% on average. Consumer expenditure increases in the first week after the outbreak, and declines the most seriously in the second to fourth weeks. In the fifth week, it begins to rebound significantly and maintains the trend of recovery with fluctuation, but does not return to the normal growth path by mid-May. The contribution rates of consumption item restriction, income decline, risk awareness rise and consumption scenario change to the average decline of household consumption are 29.6%, 29.4%, 15.9% and 13.0% respectively. Factors other than household income, that is,the impact of the epidemic on the economic and social environment and residents' consumption psychology,are the main factors affecting the decline of residents' consumption after the outbreak of the epidemic.
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(1)开展调查的省（市）包括天津、河北、山西、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、安徽、福建、江西、河南、湖南、广东、四川、陕西等15个省（市）。
(1)因篇幅所限，2019年和2020年以事件点划分的每周的具体对应日期，以及每周家庭消费支出对数的均值和标准差以附表1展示，见《统计研究》网站所列附件。
(1)计算方法为post×d 20的回归系数–0.191与post×d 20×jyzk4的回归系数–0.057相加之和，下同。
基本信息:
DOI：10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2022.05.003
中图分类号:F126.1
引用信息:
[1]刘洪波,邸建亮,王冉.新冠肺炎疫情对居民消费的影响研究[J].统计研究,2022,39(05):38-48.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2022.05.003.
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2022-04-29
2022-04-29