统计研究

在全球经济面临下行压力的背景下，各国政府积极探索通过各种形式的扩张性财政政策来促进经济增长，如何解决财政赤字所带来的融资压力成为各方关注的焦点。本文通过构建动态随机一般均衡模型，对财政赤字货币化的宏观经济和金融效应进行研究，并讨论相关政策效应随政府债务水平的变化规律等问题。研究发现：首先，无论经济波动的来源如何，财政赤字货币化都将引发明显的滞涨效应，其中产出下降持续5～10年，通胀上升持续5年；其次，财政赤字货币化会引发中短期的金融衰退和金融波动，并造成资产价格和信贷利差的超调现象，其中资产价格下跌和风险溢价的波动分别持续2.5年和5年；最后，低债务的国家在可以发债融资的情况下，如果贸然实施财政赤字货币化，不仅无助于减轻政策负担和提高政策效果，反而会导致更大的经济和金融波动风险。本文结论的核心启示是，财政赤字货币化的实施有严格的前提条件，对于政府债务率相对较低、债务仍可持续的国家而言，无论是从理论还是实践来看都没有实施财政赤字货币化的必要性。

Against the backdrop of downward pressure on the global economy, governments around the world have begun to actively explore various forms of expansionary fiscal policies to drive economic growth. How to address the financing pressure caused by fiscal deficit has become a focus of attention. By constructing a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium(DSGE) model, this paper studies the macroeconomic and financial effects of monetization of fiscal deficit, and how policy effects change with the level of government debt. The conclusions include: firstly, regardless of the source of economic fluctuations, the monetization of fiscal deficit will trigger a significant stagflation effect, in which output decline lasts for 5～10 years and inflation rises for 5 years; secondly, the monetization of fiscal deficit will also lead to short-and medium-term financial recessions and financial fluctuations, and cause the overshoot of asset price and credit spread, where the decline in asset price and the fluctuation of risk premium last for 2.5 years and 5 years respectively; lastly, if low-debt countries rush to implement the monetization of fiscal deficits in cases where fiscal deficits could be financed through bond issuance, it will not only make no contribution to reducing the policy burden and enhancing policy effects, but lead to more risks of economic and financial fluctuations. The core implication of this paper is that the implementation of monetization of fiscal deficit has strict preconditions, and especially for countries with government debt remaining low and sustainable, there is no theoretical or practical necessity to implement deficit monetization.