统计研究

本文探讨P2P投资者在经验积累过程中能否通过学习提高甄别违约风险的能力,并分析其中的传导机制。将投资者对借款标的特征的选择作为其学习结果的代表变量,构建了投资经验通过学习行为影响甄别违约风险能力的理论框架。基于"人人贷"2010-2016年的数据,本文利用中介效应分析方法比较了投资经验对甄别违约风险能力的影响效应在剔除学习效应前后的差异性。结果发现:①投资者投资经验对其甄别违约风险的能力具有正向但边际递减的总影响,且在投资经验均值处为促进作用;②投资经验通过影响学习结果,进而对投资者甄别违约风险的能力产生间接影响;③在分离出经由学习的间接影响后,投资经验对甄别违约风险能力具有负向且边际递增的直接效应,且在投资经验均值处为抑制作用。该直接效应被学习的间接影响遮盖,导致总效应与直接效应呈相反的变化趋势,说明学习行为改变了投资经验影响甄别违约风险能力的非线性形式,从经验学习中投资者可以实现甄别违约风险能力的提升。本文研究对投资者改善投资能力,对监管者规范网络借贷平台信息披露机制、制定投资者教育与保护政策,对P2P网络借贷平台构建良好的平台投资环境,均具有指导意义。

In this paper,we investigate whether investors can improve their ability to identify the default risk by learning with experience,and study how this improvement works. Taking the investors' choice of the listing characteristics as the proxy variable of the learning result,we construct a theoretic frame in which investment experience affects investors' ability to identify the default risk through learning the listing characteristics.Based on "Renrendai" 2010-2016 data,we apply the mediation analysis method to analyze the relationship between investment experience and the ability to identify the default risk before and after separating the learning effect. The evidence shows that: 1) investment experience has a positive gross impact on the ability to identify the default risk with diminishing marginal effect and this gross impact is positive at the average investment experience; 2) investment experience has an indirect impact on the ability to identify the default risk by affecting the learning result; 3) after separating this indirect effect, the direct influence of investment experience on the ability to identify the default risk is negative and marginally increasing and this direct impact is negative at the average investment experience. The direct effect is concealed by the indirect effect,resulting in different change trends of the direct effect and the gross effect. Learning from investment experience can change the nonlinear form in which investment experience affects the ability to identify the default risk. This makes it possible for investors to improve their ability to identify the default risk with learning from their previous investment experience. This research provides guidance for investors to improve their abilities,and provides reference for P2P online lending platforms to create better investment environments,as well as policy suggestions for administrators on P2P platform information disclosure regulation, investor education and protection.