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中国快速城市化和工业化导致的大量农村劳动力向城市转移引起了决策者和学术界对粮食安全问题的担忧,但本文利用县级和农户面板数据研究发现:首先,即使到2010年,农村劳动力转移对粮食总产量的影响并不大,对主产区粮食总产量的影响更小,这是因为主产区农户会通过更多地增加其他农业生产要素来替代劳动力投入的减少;其次,劳动力转移对主产区和非主产区农户的粮食生产行为的影响以及对主要粮食作物和次要粮食作物的影响都有所不同。总之,农村劳动力迁移尚未严重威胁到中国的粮食安全,当然,政府应针对粮食主产区和非主产区实施不同的政策以保持粮食总产量的稳定,特别是要鼓励主产区的耕地流转以降低劳动力迁移的负面影响。
Abstract：Rapid urbanization and industrialization in China lead to a large number of rural labor force transfer to the city,it made policymakers and academics concern about food safety issues. By using county-level and farmers-level panel data,we find that: Even by 2010,the rural labor migration had only slightly affected the total grain output,and the impact on the main producing areas' grain output is smaller. This is because farmers in the main producing areas increased other agricultural production elements to replace the reduction in labor input. In addition,the labor transition's effecting mechanism on grain production behaviors is also different between main producing areas and non-producing areas. In short,the rural labor migration has not been a serious threat to China's food security. Of course,the government should take a different intervention policy for the major grain producing areas and non-producing areas to maintain the stability of grain output,especially to encourage the farmland circulation in main producing areas to reduce negative impacts brought by the labor migration on food production.
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1例如中部地区或南方的水田大多只能种植水稻或冬小麦,而不能改种玉米。
1财政部2003年12月下发的《关于改革和完善农业综合开发政策措施的意见》中确定河北、内蒙古、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、江苏、河南、山东、湖北、湖南、江西、安徽、四川13个省(自治区)为我国粮食主产区,北京、天津、山西、上海、浙江、福建、广东、广西、海南、重庆、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆等18个省(市、自治区)为粮食非主产区。
1在后文中,如果我们不控制这两个代理变量或者只控制其中一个代理变量,或者这两个代理变量都不控制,本文的结论并不会发生改变。
基本信息:
DOI：10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2014.09.009
中图分类号:F323.6;F326.11
引用信息:
[1]刘亮,章元,高汉.劳动力转移与粮食安全[J].统计研究,2014,31(09):58-64.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2014.09.009.
2014-09-15
2014-09-15