| 556 | 2 | 42 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
社会科学研究中，经常需要对样本成员进行长期甚至终身追访，以揭示现象的变化和发展规律、有效识别现象间的因果关系，同时估计截面总体特征也是关注的重点。追踪调查数据在研究变量变化规律、识别变量间因果关系等方面具有显著优势，在社会科学研究中得到广泛应用。然而，随着追访轮次的增加，受无回答和样本成员死亡的影响，追踪样本会出现样本损耗、低年龄组代表性不足等问题。此外，由于移民和新生总体的加入，截面总体不断变化。因此，利用追踪样本估计截面总体会面临潜在的偏差，包括无回答偏差和涵盖偏差。为了减少这些偏差，国际上多数追踪调查项目均定期或不定期从总体或子总体中抽取更新样本，并将其和追踪样本整合起来，以估计截面总体特征，即对追踪样本进行样本更新。尽管我国追踪调查项目取得一定发展，但国内却鲜有文献对此问题进行讨论。本文通过梳理部分国际知名追踪调查的抽样设计方案和技术文档，对样本更新的总体范围、更新频率、更新样本的抽取方法、追踪样本和更新样本整合方法的实践经验进行归纳和总结，并指出潜在的问题及需要加强研究的方向，为我国追踪调查实践提供经验和理论上的支撑。
Abstract：In social science research, in order to reveal the patterns of change and development of a phenomenon and effectively identify the causal relationships between phenomena, it is often necessary to follow sample members for a long period, sometimes even throughout their lifetime. Additionally,estimating the overall characteristics of the cross-sectional population is also the major concern.Longitudinal survey data have distinct advantages in studying the change of social patterns and identifying the causal relationships between variables, which is why it has been used widely in social science research.However, as follow-up waves increase, longitudinal sample is threatened by the attrition due to non-response and death of sample members, as well as underrepresentation in the young age group.Moreover, cross-sectional population constantly changes from wave to wave due to immigration, emigration and the inclusion of new-birth population. Consequently, using follow-up samples to estimate the cross-sectional population may introduce potential bias,including non-response bias and coverage bias.To reduce those potential biases,most international longitudinal survey programs regularly or irregularly draw a refreshment sample from cross-sectional population or sub-population.Those refreshment samples are then integrated with on-going sample to estimate the cross-sectional population characteristics.This procedure is known as sample refreshing.Although China has made some progress in developing longitudinal survey programs,there is limited literature addressing this issue in China.This paper aims to summarize the practical experiences of sample refreshing,including the coverage scope and frequency of sample refreshing,refreshment sampling methods,and integration methods for on-going sample and refreshment sample,by reviewing the sampling design schemes and relevant documents from some well-known international longitudinal surveys.This paper also highlights potential problems with existing methods and identifies areas for further research.The goal is to provide practical experience and theoretical support for longitudinal survey practices in China.
[1]陈光慧.连续性抽样调查理论及其应用研究[D].广东:暨南大学, 2009.
[2]于力超,金勇进.含非随机缺失数据的面板数据参数估计方法[J].统计研究, 2016, 33(1):95–102.
[3] Antal E, Rothenbühlerm M. Weighting in the Swiss Household Panel Technical Report[R]. Swiss Foundation for Research in Social Sciences,2015.
[4] Banks J, Batty G D, Breedvelt J J F, et al. English Longitudinal Study of Ageing:Waves 0–9, 1998—2019[R]. UK Data Service SN:5050,2021.
[5] Beaul A, Campbell F, Dascola M, et al. PSID Main Interview User Manual:Release 2019[EB/OL]. https://psidonline.isr.umich.edu/data/Documentation/UserGuide2019.pdf, 2019.
[6] B?rsch-Supan A, Jürges H. The Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe-Methodology[M]. Mannheim:MEA, 2005.
[7] Cheshire H, Hussey D, Medina J, et al. Financial Circumstances, Health and Wellbeing of the Older Population in England:The 2008 English Longitudinal Study of Aging[M]. London:Institute of Fiscal Studies, 2012.
[8] Elliott M N, Haviland A. Use of a Web-based Convenience Sample to Supplement a Probability Sample[J]. Survey Methodology, 2007, 33(2):211–215.
[9] Ernst R L. Maximizing the Overlap between Surveys when Information is Incomplete[R]. U.S. Census Bureau, 1986.
[10] Fisher G G, Ryan L H. Overview of the Health and Retirement Study and Introduction to the Special Issue[J]. Work Aging Retire, 2018, 4(1):1–9.
[11] Heeringa S G, Connor J H. Technical Description of the Health and Retirement Survey Sample Design[M]. Ann Arbor:University of Michigan,1995.
[12] Killpack C, Oskala A. Understanding Society Innovation Panel Wave 4:Technical Report[R]. National Centre for Social Research, 2011.
[13] Kish L, Scott A. Retaining Units after Changing Strata and Probabilities[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1971, 66(335):461–470.
[14] Kroh M, Kühne S, Jacobsen J, et al. Sampling, Nonresponse, and Integrated Weighting of the 2016 IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees(M3/M4)[R]. SOEP Survey Papers 477:Series C, 2017.
[15] Lee S, Nishimura R, Burton P, et al. HRS 2016 Sampling Weights[EB/OL]. https://hrs.isr.umich.edu/sites/default/files/biblio/HRS2016SamplingWeights.pdf, 2021.
[16] Lynn P. Methodology of Longitudinal Surveys[M]. New York:John Wiley&Sons, 2009:1–33.
[17] Malter F, B?rsch-Supan A. SHARE Wave 4:Innovations&Methodology[M]. Munich:MEA, 2013.
[18] Malter F, B?rsch-Supan A. SHARE Wave 5:Innovations&Methodology[M]. Munich:MEA, 2015.
[19] Rathje M, Glemser A. SOEP-Core 2020:Report of Survey Methodology and Fieldwork[R]. SOEP Survey Papers 1050:Series B, 2021.
[20] Schonlau M, Kroh M, Watson N. The Implementation of Cross-sectional Weights in Household Panel Surveys[J]. Statistiscs Surveys, 2013, 7:37–57.
[21] Siegers R, Steinhauer H W, K?nig J. SOEP Core-2019:Sampling, Nonresponse, and Weighting in Sample P[R]. SOEP Survey Papers 1080:Series C, 2021.
[22] Spiess M, Rendtel U. Combining an Ongoing Panel with a New Cross-Sectional Sample[R]. DIW Berlin:German Institute for Economic Research, 2000.
[23] Steptoe A, Breeze E, Banks J, et al. Cohort Profile:the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing[J]. International Journal of Epidemiology, 2013,42(6):1640–1648.
[24] Summerfield M, Garrard B, Hahn M, et al. HILDA User Manual-Release 19[EB/OL]. https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/_data/assets/pdf_file/0009/3562857/HILDA-User-Manual-Release-19.0.pdf, 2020.
[25] Taylor R, Conway L, Calderwood L, et al. Health, Wealth and Lifestyles of the Older Population in England:The 2002 English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Technical Report[M]. London:Institute of Fiscal Studies, 2007.
[26] Wagner G G, Frick J R, Schupp J. The German Socio-Economic Panel Study(SOEP):Scope, Evolution and Enhancements[R]. SOEP papers No.1, 2007.
[27] Watson N. Options for a Top-up Sample to the HILDA Survey[A]. 2006 ACSPRI Social Science Methodology Conference[C]. 2006:10–25.
[28] Watson N, Wooden M. Adding a Top-Up Sample to the Household, Income and Labor Dynamics in Australia Survey[J]. Australian Economic Review, 2013, 46(4):489–498.
[29] Watson N. Methodology for the HILDA Top-up Sample[R]. HILDA Project Technical Paper Series No.1/11, 2011.
[30] Watson N, Lynn P. Advances in Longitudinal Survey Methodology[M]. New York:John Wiley&Sons, 2021:1–25.
(1)上述调查项目的官方网址分别为https://psidonline.isr.umich.edu/，https://hrs.isr.umich.edu/about,https://www.elsa-project.ac.uk/，https://www.understandingsociety.ac.uk/，https://www.diw.de/en/diw_01.c.615551.en/research_infrastructure__socio-economic_panel__soep.html。
(2)北京大学的中国家庭追踪调查（http://www.isss.pku.edu.cn/cfps/index.htm）、中国健康与养老追踪调查（http://charls.pku.edu.cn）、中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查（http://chads.nsd.pku.edu.cn/sjzx/tcsj/508264.htm），中国人民大学的中国教育追踪调查（http://ceps.ruc.edu.cn）、中国老年社会追踪调查（http://class.ruc.edu.cn），中国社会科学院的中国大学生追踪调查（http://www.pscus.cn），中国老年科学研究中心的中国城乡老年人口状况追踪调查（http://www.crca.cn/index.php/19-life.html）。
(1)该调查的官方网址：https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/hilda。
(2)该调查的官方网址：https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/health-survey-for-england#resources。
(1)该调查的官方网址：https://share-eric.eu/。
(1)该调查的官方网址：https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps.html。
(1)该调查的官方网址：https://forscenter.ch/projects/swiss-household-panel/。
(2)因篇幅所限，各调查项目的梳理结果以附表1展示，见《统计研究》网站所列附件。
基本信息:
DOI：10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2024.01.010
中图分类号:C31;C811
引用信息:
[1]王俊,金勇进,王亚峰,等.追踪调查中的样本更新问题研究——部分国际追踪调查的实践经验总结及思考[J].统计研究,2024,41(01):124-134.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2024.01.010.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金国际合作项目“生活方式对老年认知损害和失智症的影响研究：基于中英可比健康养老追踪调查”（72061137005）; 美国国家老龄化研究所项目“CHARLS全国追踪调查”（R01-AG037031）; 国家社会科学基金项目“复杂抽样数据的统计推断方法及其应用研究”（19BTJ012）
2024-01-25
2024-01-25