统计研究

在推动“碳中和”目标实现与启动全国碳排放权交易市场的背景下，本文利用2013年实施的碳排放权交易试点政策作为准自然实验，验证了利用市场机制解决外部性问题的环境规制方式可以达到双赢，即实现引导工业企业退出政府补贴与激励企业提高经济绩效的双重目标。本文获取碳排放权交易首批7个试点省份重点排放工业企业数据，通过双重差分方法验证了碳排放权交易制度可以通过剥离工业企业的政策性负担，硬化企业的预算软约束；在引导工业企业退出政府补贴的同时，却并未导致企业经济绩效的下滑。机制检验发现，碳排放权交易试点政策会率先激励试点重点排放工业企业增加R&D投入，并通过研发创新的补偿效应弥补企业的减排成本，提高工业企业的全要素生产率与经济绩效。本文还进一步发现碳排放权交易制度可以有效推进高耗能工业企业形成以优质企业为主导的发展格局，市场地位越高的优质企业业绩提升幅度越大，产业链上游企业、民营企业以及碳配额管理严格地区企业经济绩效的内部激励效应更强。本文的实证检验结果为如何处理好“碳中和”与经济高质量发展之间的关系提供了政策选择依据，也为全国碳排放权交易市场的建设提供了经验与借鉴。

In the context of promoting the goal of “carbon neutrality” and launching the national carbon emission right trading market, this study uses the carbon emission right trading pilot policy implemented in China in 2013 as a quasi-natural experiment and verifies that the mechanism for solving environmental externality problems through the market can achieve a win-win, which means to achieve the dual objectives of guiding industrial enterprises to withdraw from government subsidies and encouraging enterprises to improve economic performance. This study gathers the data of main emitting industrial enterprises in the first seven pilot provinces of China for carbon emissions trading and conducts the research with difference-in-difference method. The results show that carbon emissions trading scheme can harden the soft budget constraint of industrial enterprises by stripping them of policy burdens; while inducing them to withdraw from government subsidies, it does not lead to a decline in their economic performance. The mechanism test shows that the carbon emission trading pilot policy takes the lead in encouraging pilot enterprises to increase R&D investment, makes up for the emission reduction cost through the compensatory effect of innovation, and eventually improves the total factor productivity and economic performance of industrial enterprises. This paper further finds that the carbon emission trading scheme can effectively promote the change of energy-intensive industrial enterprises to high-quality enterprises that dominate the development paradigm. In addition, it finds that quality enterprises with higher market positions show greater improvements in their performance; the internal incentive effect of economic performance is stronger in upstream industrial enterprises, private enterprises, and the regions with stricter carbon quota management. The empirical analysis of this paper provides a basis for policy choices on harmonizing the goal of carbon neutrality and high-quality economic development, and provides experience for the construction of a national carbon emission trading market.