统计研究

自2008年以来，经济周期平稳化是我国宏观经济运行的基本特征，本文尝试从经济服务化和产业关联的视角对这一现象做出解释。具体而言，本文在工业和服务业两部门动态随机一般均衡模型中引入中间产品使用的产业关联，产业关联的引入使得模型产生了冲击放大机制，而放大机制的大小取决于两部门中间产品投入比例。研究表明，由于工业部门使用更大比例的中间产品，其冲击放大机制更大；而随着经济的服务化，工业部门增加值占比下降则降低了经济整体的冲击放大机制，从而产生了经济波动趋稳的现象。通过两部门中间产品比重的数值模拟，本文证实了冲击放大机制的存在；进而对1995—2007年和2008—2018年之间的模型参数进行校准，并对两个阶段的模型所产生的经济波动性进行分析对比，结论显示，2008年之后服务业对工业的替代导致了更低的经济波动性和更高的宏观经济稳定性。

The stabilization of the economic cycle is the basic feature of China's macroeconomic operation. The article attempts to explain this phenomenon from the perspective of economic service-oriented economy and production network. Specifically, this article introduces the production network of the use of intermediate products in the two-sector DSGE model, which creates an amplification mechanism for technological shocks, and the size of the amplification mechanism depends on the proportion of intermediate product inputs in the two sectors. The conclusion shows that because the industrial sector uses a larger proportion of intermediate goods, its shock amplification mechanism is greater; as the economy becomes service-oriented, the decline in the industrial sector's share reduces the overall economic impact amplification mechanism, resulting in economic stabilization. This paper confirms the existence of the shock amplification mechanism through numerical simulation of the proportion of intermediate products in the two sectors. Then we calibrate the model parameters in 1995—2007 and 2008—2018, and make a comparative analysis of the economic fluctuations generated by the two-stage model. The result shows that the substitution of the service industry for the industry after 2008 leads to lower economic volatility and higher macroeconomic stability.