统计研究

2006年足球单场竞猜异常火爆,而全国联网篮彩却一直惨淡经营,竞猜型广东篮球彩票也只试行四个月就夭折,主要问题是篮彩玩法和奖金设置不够合理。如何挽救低迷中的篮彩,是一个值得研究的课题。为使广东篮彩成为未来篮彩市场的主流,本文建议提高广东篮彩一等奖的返奖率,并给予保本优惠,再增设二等奖,在此基础上利用美国全国篮球联赛2004—2005赛季的数据建立概率模型来估计中奖概率,为奖金合理设置提供有益的参考。

It's extremely prevalent to gamble on a single football match in 2006, but the national basketball lottery is going by painstaking effort, while Guangdong basketball lottery has come to a premature end only after a four-month trial implementation. The main problems include unreasonable rules of basketball lottery and prize installation. How to remedy the basketball lottery in depression is a topic being worth studying. In order to help Guangdong lottery become main stream in near future, we suggest to raise the proportion of money return with preferential minimum bonus, and also further set up a second prize. In this paper, we focus on establishing probability models to estimate the probability of winning a premium based on data from American National Basketball Association in 2004—2005, which may provide helpful reference for reasonable prize installation.