| 2,239 | 70 | 86 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
家庭在福利分析中具有重要地位,但家庭收入如何受最低工资政策影响却很少得到关注。本文采用2005-2015年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据,利用多时期双重差分和再中心化影响函数回归方法实证考察了最低工资政策对我国城镇家庭收入及其分布的影响。研究发现:①最低工资标准上涨显著提升了处于贫困标准1～2倍家庭的收入水平,对贫困标准以下或高于贫困标准2倍以上的家庭收入没有影响;②最低工资标准提升可有效减缓城镇家庭收入不平等,尤其对家庭收入分布较低分位部分的不平等程度有明显改善;③最低工资政策对家庭收入的最终影响取决于工资溢出效应和就业挤出效应的比较,且其对不同收入等级家庭中成员的收入和就业影响存在明显的异质性。政府在制定最低工资政策时,应针对低收入女性劳动力出台相应的配套措施,以保证各类低收入家庭均能从最低工资标准提升中受益。
Abstract：Household plays an important role in welfare analysis, but how household income is affected by the minimum wage policy has received little attention. This paper uses Chinese General Social Survey data conducted in 2005-2015 and multi-period difference-in-difference and recentered influence function regression methods, empirically examines the effect of minimum wage policy on urban household income and the distribution. It is found that: ① Increasing the minimum wage has significantly improved the income of households with 1～2 times of the poverty standard, but has no effect on the income of households below the poverty standard or above more than 2 times of the poverty standard. ② Minimum wage increase can effectively compress the family income distribution and reduce the inequality, especially in the lower part of family income distribution. ③ The final impact of minimum wage policy on household income depends on the comparison of wage spillover effect and employment reducing effect, and the impacts have significant heterogeneity on the income and employment of members in the households at different income levels. When formulating the minimum wage policy, the government should introduce corresponding supporting measures for low-income female labor to ensure that all low-income households can benefit from the improvement of minimum wage.
[1]丁赛,董晓媛,李实.经济转型下的中国城镇女性就业、收入及其对家庭收入不平等的影响[J].经济学(季刊),2007(4):1319-1338.
[2]Paul S,Chen Z,Lu M.Contribution of Household Income Components to the Level and Rise of Inequality in Urban China [J].Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy,2017,22(2):212-226.
[3]Fang T,Lin C.Minimum Wages and Employment in China [J].IZA Journal of Labor Policy,2015,4:1-30.
[4]马草原.中国城镇居民收入差距研究述评[J].经济社会体制比较,2014(2):247-256.
[5]Becker G.A Theory of Marriage:Part II [J].Journal of Political Economy,1974,82(2):S11-S26.
[6]Neumark D,Wascher W.Minimum Wage,Labor Market Institutions,and Youth Employment:A Cross-National Analysis [J].ILR Review,2004,57(1):223-248.
[7]Dube A.Minimum Wages and the Distribution of Family Incomes [J].IZA Discussion Paper No.10572,2017.
[8]Grossman J.The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Other Wages [J].The Journal of Human Resources,1983,18(3):359-378.
[9]Lee D.Wage Inequality in the United States During the 1980s:Rising Dispersion or Falling Minimum Wage?[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1999,14(3):977-1023.
[10]Neumark D.The Econometrics and Economics of the Employment Effects of Minimum Wages:Getting from Known Unknowns to Known Knowns[J].NBER Working Paper No.25043,2018.
[11]Autor D,Manning A,Smith C.The Contribution of the Minimum Wage to US Wage Inequality over Three Decades:A Reassessment [J].American Economic Journal:Applied Economics,2016,8(1):58-99.
[12]Card D,Krueger A.A Living Wage?The Effects of the Minimum Wage on the Distribution of Wages,the Distribution of Family Earnings,and Poverty [J].Industrial Relations Section Working Paper #333,1994.
[13]Neumark D,Wascher W.Employment Effects of Minimum and Subminimum Wages:Panel Data on State Minimum Wage Laws [J].ILR Review,1992,46(1):55-81.
[14]Atkinson A,Leventi C,Nolan B,et al.Reducing Poverty and Inequality through Tax-Benefit Reform and the Minimum Wage:the UK as a Case-Study [J].The Journal of Economic Inequality,2017,15(4):303-323.
[15]贾鹏,张世伟.最低工资标准提升的溢出效应[J].统计研究,2013(4):37-41.
[16]马双,李雪莲,蔡栋梁.最低工资与已婚女性劳动参与[J].经济研究,2017(6):153-168.
[17]丁守海.最低工资管制的就业效应分析——兼论《劳动合同法》的交互影响[J].中国社会科学,2010(1):85-102.
[18]罗小兰.我国劳动力市场买方垄断条件下最低工资就业效应分析[J].财贸研究,2007(4):1-5.
[19]王弟海.从收入分配和经济发展的角度看我国的最低工资制度[J].浙江社会科学,2011(2):11-17.
[20]杨娟,李实.最低工资提高会增加农民工收入吗?[J].经济学(季刊),2016(4):1563-1580
[21]Mayneris F,Poncet S,Zhang T.Improving or Disappearing:Firm-Level Adjustments to Minimum Wages in China [J].Discussion Paper 2016-27,2016.
[22]Firpo S,Fortin N,Lemieux T.Unconditional Quantile Regression[J].Econometrica,2009,77(3):953-973.
[23]徐舒.技术进步、教育收益与收入不平等[J].经济研究,2010(9):79-92.
(1)美国国会预算办公室(CBO,2014)撰文称,最低工资政策对家庭收入的影响主要取决于低工资家庭成员数量及其对最低工资的就业敏感性和家庭收入结构。如源于失业而导致的收入下降可能会被其他来源收入或其他家庭成员的收入所抵消。总体而言,低于贫困线6倍以下的美国家庭均会得益于最低工资标准提升。
(2)Dube(2017)[7]通过对已有关于最低工资政策影响贫困的文献进行总结后发现,绝大多数均支持最低工资政策有利于贫困减缓的结论。
(3)关于户主的职业声望得分的计算,首先将CGSS问卷的职业编码转换成通用的国际标准职业编码ISCO(International Standard Classification of Occupation),随后再将国际标准职业编码转换成国际标准职业声望得分SIOPS(Standard International Occupational Prestige Scale)。转换过程可由stata程序“iskoisei”辅助完成。
(4)对于某年度人均GDP最高的省(区、市)和排名最低的省(区、市),本文分别选择当年与其排名最为接近的两个省(区、市)的最低工资标准求平均值,并将所求均值的滞后1期作为其当年度最低工资标准的工具变量。
(5)马双等(2017)[16]也发现,相邻省(区、市)的最低工资越高,本地区的最低工资越低,两者呈显著的负相关。然而,本文没有选择相邻地区的最低工资均值作为工具变量,原因在于地区间的地理距离越近,劳动力更有可能跨省际流动,本地区的劳动力收入更有可能受相邻地区最低工资的影响。
(6)我国赚取最低工资的劳动力其家庭收入大致分布如下:处于贫困标准的1倍以下的家庭占比16%,处于贫困标准1～2倍的家庭占比为69%,处于贫困标准2～3倍的家庭占比为13%,仅有2%的家庭收入超过贫困标准的3倍。
(7)IV估计的完整结果见附表2。
(8)此处需要注意,由于本文的标准误全部统一聚类在省(区、市)层面,因此Cragg-Donald F统计量失效。
(9)稳健性检验结果见附图1～4。
(10)在2004-2014年期间,最低工资标准约为贫困线的0.3～0.9倍之间,也仅在2011年大幅提高最低工资标准后才达到了贫困线的0.8倍以上。
基本信息:
DOI：10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2019.07.006
中图分类号:F249.24;F124.7
引用信息:
[1]段志民,郝枫.最低工资政策的城镇家庭收入分配效应研究[J].统计研究,2019,36(07):65-76.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2019.07.006.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金青年项目“中等收入者比重统计测度新方法及其应用研究”(15CTJ003);国家社会科学基金重大项目“贫困退出考核评估的统计测度研究”(17ZDA095);; 天津市高等学校人文社会科学研究项目“天津市居民家庭贫困脆弱性的统计测度与发生机制研究”(2017SK109);; 天津市科技发展战略研究计划项目“基于大数据技术的科技成果转化平台设计及运营机制研究”(17ZLZXZF00080)的资助
2019-07-25
2019-07-25