统计研究

在“双碳”目标下，中国式现代化对推动绿色发展和增进民生福祉提出明确要求。在此背景下，准确评估低碳城市试点政策如何影响环境福利绩效对于促进经济社会发展全面绿色转型大有裨益。本文从低碳城市建设的现实背景出发，就低碳城市试点政策对环境福利绩效的潜在影响进行规范阐释，并采用混合网络数据包络分析模型对环境福利绩效进行准确测算，从而运用双重差分法就低碳城市试点政策对环境福利绩效的影响及其作用机制进行实证考察。研究发现，低碳城市试点政策能够显著提升环境福利绩效，该结论在进行前提假设检验以及构造组别–时期估计量、插补估计量和堆叠回归估计量进行政策处理效应异质性检验后依然成立。异质性分析表明，低碳城市试点政策对东部和西部城市、非资源型城市、高行政级别城市、大城市和特大及以上城市的环境福利绩效具有更显著的提升效应。机制分析表明，低碳城市试点政策通过优化产业结构、提升绿色技术和积累人力资本提升环境福利绩效，并通过加剧资本错配降低环境福利绩效。空间效应分析表明，在经济地理嵌套空间权重矩阵和方言社会网络空间权重矩阵下，低碳城市试点政策对周边地区的环境福利绩效具有正向的空间溢出效应。本文在为低碳城市试点政策与环境福利绩效之间关系提供新的文献证据的同时，也为建设低碳城市、促进经济绿色转型和提高居民环境福利提供了学理支持与决策参考。

Under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, the Chinese path to modernization has put forward clear requirements for promoting green development and improving residents' welfare. In this context, accurately assessing the impact of the low-carbon city pilot(LCCP) policy on environmental welfare performance is greatly beneficial to promoting comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society. Based on the background of the low carbon city construction, this paper explains the potential impact of the LCCP policy on environmental welfare performance, employs the Hybrid-Network Data Envelopment Analysis Model to accurately measure environmental welfare performance, and empirically examines the impact of the LCCP policy on environmental welfare performance and its mechanism using the difference-in-difference method. The results indicate that the LCCP policy can significantly improve environmental welfare performance. This conclusion still holds after hypothesis testing and constructing group-period estimators, interpolation estimators, and stacked regression estimators for testing the heterogeneity of the policy treatment effect. The heterogeneity analysis shows that the LCCP policy is more significant in improving the environmental welfare performance in the eastern and western cities, non-resource-based cities, high administrative level cities, large cities as well as supercities and even larger cities in China. Mechanism analysis proves that the LCCP policy mainly improves environmental welfare performance by optimizing industrial structure, improving green technology, and accumulating human capital, and reduces environmental welfare performance by exacerbating capital misallocation. The spatial effect analysis shows that, under the economic geographic nesting spatial weight matrix and dialectal social network spatial weight matrix, the LCCP policy exerts a positive spatial spillover effect on environmental welfare performance of surrounding areas. This paper provides not only new evidence on the impact of the LCCP policy on environmental welfare performance but also theoretical support and policy-making reference for building low-carbon cities, achieving green economic transformation, and improving residents' environmental welfare.