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中国人口出生率下降以及人口老龄化引起了人们对计划生育政策调整的激烈讨论。作者根据全国27个地区1980-2011年的面板数据,在横截面存在相关性的情形下,运用面板单位根和协整方法,定量考察了人口出生率、人口死亡率、城镇职工工资水平、农村居民收入水平之间的关系。研究发现:尽管我国实行了计划生育政策,但人口出生率与经济发展变量之间仍然存在着长期稳定的关系;城市和农村的经济发展对于人口出生率的影响存在显著差异。前者会刺激人口出生率的提高,但后者会降低人口出生率,且影响程度比前者大;人口出生率与经济发展变量之间的关系存在明显的地区差异。根据以上结论,作者认为放松计划生育政策不会引起我国人口数量猛增,反而会优化人口结构,提高人口整体素质。
Abstract：The decline of birth rate and old aging cause a hot debate about the adjustment of family planning policy in China. By constructing a panel for 27 regions between 1980 and 2011 and using panel unit-root and cointegration tests in the situation of cross-sectional dependence,we investigate the relationship between birth rate,death rate,urban workers' wage,rural residents' income in China. Empirical results show: 1) In spite of implementing family planning policy,there still exists a long-term stable relationship between birth rate and economic development variables in China. 2) The impact of the economic development of urban and rural areas on birth rate has significant difference. The former will stimulate the enhancement of birth rate,while the latter will lower birth rate and have greater impact than the former. 3) The relationship between birth rate and economic development variables has obvious regional variation. Based on these results,we believe that relaxing family planning policy will not cause a huge surge in the number of population,and will instead optimize population structure and improve population quality as a whole.
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1由于数据不齐整,研究样本中不包括重庆、海南、西藏、陕西。
2选择在岗职工年实际平均工资这一变量,一方面是考虑数据的完整性;另一方面是考虑到其既能反映收入增长的情况,也能反映生育小孩的机会成本,实证估计结果所反映的是这两种影响因素的综合效果。
1限于篇幅,前文检验结果和估计结果未给出,有兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
基本信息:
DOI：10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2014.09.007
中图分类号:C924.2;F124
引用信息:
[1]彭浩然,孟醒.中国人口出生率下降与经济发展[J].统计研究,2014,31(09):44-50.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2014.09.007.
2014-09-15
2014-09-15