统计研究

全国第六次人口普查汇总资料的发布,为定量分析中国人口生育的特点和变化提供了可能,本文主要就生育水平、生育模式,以及生育变化的影响因素进行全面分析。研究发现,在生育水平持续下降的情况下,结构性因素逐渐成为左右未来中国生育水平走向的决定性因素;生育模式方面则体现出初婚初育间隔扩大,生育孩次向低孩次集中的方向发展;尽管年龄别已婚生育率的变化使得一般生育率上升9.61%,但在导致生育水平下降的各因素中,育龄妇女年龄结构、婚姻状态等人口结构因素的影响显得越来越重要。研究结果对于正确理解我国人口形势的过去和现在,科学地预见和适应未来具有重要的意义。

The latest published data of the sixth census provides the probability of analyzing Chinese fertility quantitatively.This paper mainly analyzes the fertility level,fertility pattern,and the factors influencing fertility behavior.Several results are discovered as follows: under the situation of continuously decreasing of fertility level,structural factors are becoming the crucial ones which will determine the future development of fertility level.In the aspect of fertility pattern,the interval between first marriage and first childbearing is enlarging,and the parity is becoming lower.Although the age-specific marital fertility rate has resulted in the increase of general fertility rate by 9.61%,the age structure and marital status are more and more important among factors which resulted in the decrease of fertility level.The findings are in favor of understanding past and current Chinese population situation correctly,and predicting and adapting the future scientifically.