统计研究

在国民账户体系（SNA）“常住性原则”下，跨国企业在东道国设立附属机构为当地提供的服务被计入东道国GDP，而该附属机构是母公司为向东道国提供服务或对第三国出口而设立的，其产出具有母公司服务出口的贸易属性，应作为母公司所在国服务贸易。现阶段，对于商业存在服务贸易统计具有二元结构，而由统计口径差异导致的对跨国企业所在母国服务贸易低估问题，受到越来越多学者重视。本文采用含有产权信息的OECD analytical AMNE数据库对由国外附属机构提供的服务贸易进行核算，并在此基础上重新估计各国贸易平衡。结果显示，商业存在模式是服务贸易重要的组成部分，占服务贸易总额的一半以上，忽视商业存在模式贸易将低估全球服务贸易规模；国外附属机构向第三国的服务出口规模逐年扩大，2016年已占国外附属机构产出的22%；中国是全球最大的商业存在模式服务贸易赤字国，日、美是最大的盈余国，忽视商业存在模式服务贸易将夸大中国总顺差规模及中美贸易失衡程度；考虑中美双边商业存在模式服务贸易净值后，中美双边贸易逆差规模将减少12.7%。

Under SNA's “permanent resident principle”, the services provided by multinational corporations that set up affiliates in the host country are included in the host country's GDP, instead of the parent company's service export. But it should be included in the trade in services of the home country of the company as the affiliate is set up to provide services to the host country or export to the third country. At this stage, there is a dual structure in the statistics of trade in services of commercial presence and the underestimation of the service trade in the home country of multinational corporations caused by the difference in statistical caliber has attracted more and more scholars' attention. Using the OECD analytical AMNE database, this paper accounts the trade in services in foreign affiliates and re-estimates the trade balance of countries. The analysis indicates that commercial presence is the most important mode in trade in services, taking more than half of total trade in services. Ignoring trade of commercial presence will underestimate the scale of global trade in services. The scale of foreign affiliates' third-country effects are expanding year by year, which account for 22% of foreign affiliates' outputs in 2016. China is the largest deficit country in commercial presence trade in services, while Japan and USA are the top two surplus countries. Ignoring trade in commercial presence would exaggerate the scale of trade surplus in China and the scale of trade imbalance between China and USA. Considering the net bilateral value of trade in commercial presence, the scale of trade imbalance in China and USA could reduce 12.7%.