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人工智能发展产生的新一轮技术红利开始显现，成为构筑我国企业跨国并购竞争优势的核心模块之一。本文结合Zephyr全球并购交易数据库、国际机器人联合会数据库和国泰安上市公司财务数据库，并采用二元选择Probit模型就人工智能与企业跨国并购之间的关系展开系统分析。研究发现，人工智能是推动我国企业跨国并购的重要因素。异质性分析表明，人工智能发展能够促进技术红利替代人口红利，对不同企业跨国并购行为带来差异化影响。并且，机器代人能够促进企业劳动力结构优化，产生资源配置的倒金字塔效应。机制分析显示，用工成本削减效应、管理效率提升效应、聚集知识溢出效应是人工智能作用于企业跨国并购的具体机制。此外，本文在考虑跨国并购样本选取、核心指标稳健性、计量模型设定等多方面问题后进行稳健性检验，以及控制内生性问题后，人工智能发展对跨国并购的促进作用依然显著。
Abstract：Arising from the development of artificial intelligence, a new round of technological dividends have begun to emerge, which has become an important module for constructing the competitive advantage of Chinese firms in cross-border mergers and acquisitions. In this context, this article combines the Zephyr global M&A transaction database, the International Robot Federation database and the Guotaian listed company financial database with the binary choice Probit model to conduct a systematic analysis on the relationship between artificial intelligence and firms' cross-border mergers and acquisitions. Research has found that artificial intelligence is an important factor in promoting cross-border mergers and acquisitions of Chinese firms. The analysis of heterogeneity shows that the development of artificial intelligence can promote technological dividend to replace demographic dividend, which has a heterogeneous effect on the cross-border mergers and acquisitions of different enterprises. Furthermore, the machine replaceing labor can promote the optimization of the firms' labor structure and produce the inverted pyramid effect of resource allocation. Mechanism analysis shows that labor cost reduction effects,management efficiency enhancement effects, and agglomeration knowledge spillover effects are the specific mechanisms through which artificial intelligence affects firms' cross-border mergers and acquisitions. In addition, this article considers the robustness test of cross-border mergers and acquisitions sample selection, core indicator robustness, measurement model setting, etc., and controls endogenous problems. The tests find the role of artificial intelligence in promoting cross-border mergers and acquisitions is still significant.
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(1)详见https://www.wipo.int/publications/en/details.jsp?id=4386。
(1)Zephyr全球并购交易数据库详见https://zephyr.bvdinfo.com,IFR数据库详见https://ifr.org/worldrobotics，国泰安上市公司财务数据库详见https://data.csmar.com。
(1)技术密集型行业包括化学原料和化学制品制造业，医药制造业，化学纤维制造业，交通运输设备制造业，电气机械和器材制造业，以及计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业，除上述行业外的其他行业视为非技术密集型行业。
(1)由于该部分被解释变量为连续数据，因此本文采用线性回归模型，控制变量和固定效应与基准计量回归方程保持一致。下文机制检验部分的设定与此处相同。
(2)因篇幅所限，机制检验结果以附表1展示，见《统计研究》网站所列附件。下同。
(1)因篇幅所限，稳健性检验结果以附表2至附表5展示。
基本信息:
DOI：10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2024.09.008
中图分类号:F125;F271;TP18
引用信息:
[1]金祥义,张文菲.人工智能与中国企业跨国并购：新一轮技术红利存在吗？[J].统计研究,2024,41(09):115-125.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2024.09.008.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金青年项目“数字金融驱动中国企业出口价值链升级的机制和政策研究”（72203083）; 甘肃省哲学社会科学规划一般项目“数字金融发展推动甘肃省出口贸易高质量增长的影响研究”（2022YB022）; 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“数字技术发展对出口贸易增长的动能研究：作用逻辑和提升路径”（23XJC790008）; 甘肃省基础研究计划–软科学专项“人工智能促进甘肃省污染治理提效的机理研究：作用依据与政策分析”（23JRZA373）
2024-09-25
2024-09-25