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2020 01 v.37;No.340 74-87
工业机器人使用与制造业就业:来自中国的证据
基金项目(Foundation): 四川大学中央高校基本科研业务费学院自主项目
邮箱(Email):
DOI: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2020.01.006
中文作者单位:

四川大学经济学院;中山大学中国公共管理研究中心;东南大学公共卫生学院;

摘要(Abstract):

本文使用我国2006-2017年制造业分行业数据,实证研究了工业机器人使用对于制造业就业的影响。结果显示,工业机器人使用对制造业行业存在就业效应,其中对岗位数量有显著的负向冲击,工业机器人保有量每上升1%,就业岗位减少约4. 6%;对工资水平的影响整体上不明显。在考虑了劳动力市场的动态调节后,工业机器人使用对就业岗位的负面影响仍然存在,并随着"工业4. 0"概念的提出有所增强,对工资水平的影响则表现出时间异质性。进一步地,本文尝试使用工具变量解决潜在的内生性问题,结果稳健。最后,文章还探讨了工业机器人就业效应的行业异质性。本文的发现有助于正确认清"机器换人"对我国制造业就业市场的全面影响,并为引导人工智能技术的发展和确保就业稳定提供相应的政策建议。

关键词(KeyWords): 人工智能;;就业;;工资水平;;替代效应;;创造效应
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参考文献

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(1)国际机器人联盟(IFR)原文定义:“Industrial robots is an automatically controlled,reprogrammable multipurpose manipulator programmable in three or more axes.”(https://ifr.org/#topics)

(2)http://www.most.gov.cn/gnwkjdt/201304/t20130425_101089.html

(3)http://www.people.com.cn/GB/guoji/1029/2504329.html

(4)https://ec.europa.eu/programmes/horizon2020/en/h2020-section/robotics

(5)http://www.miit.gov.cn/n1146285/n1146352/n3054355/n3057585/n3057590/c3617837/content.html

(6)http://ghs.ndrc.gov.cn/ghwb/gjjgh/201706/t20170621_851920.html

(7)由于我国工业机器人数据从1999年才有记录,此处报告2001-2017年情况,因篇幅所限,全样本是1993-2017年以附表展示,见《统计研究》网站所列附件。下同。

(8)实际上,直到1999年IFR才有中国机器人保有量数据,为550台,同年全球保有量超过72万台,美国和德国超过8万台,日本超过3万台。

(1)https://ifr.org/free-downloads/

(1)http://www.gov.cn/zhuanti/2019qglh/2019lhzfgzbg/index.htm

(1)因篇幅所限,匹配结果在附录中展示,见《统计研究》网站。下同。

(1)由于同时控制行业固定效应和年份固定效应更能全面刻画实证模型,因篇幅所限,未控制年份固定效应的结果以附表展示,见《统计研究》网站所列附件。下同。

基本信息:

DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2020.01.006

中图分类号:F424;F249.2

引用信息:

[1]闫雪凌,朱博楷,马超.工业机器人使用与制造业就业:来自中国的证据[J].统计研究,2020,37(01):74-87.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2020.01.006.

基金信息:

四川大学中央高校基本科研业务费学院自主项目

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