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本文使用我国2006-2017年制造业分行业数据,实证研究了工业机器人使用对于制造业就业的影响。结果显示,工业机器人使用对制造业行业存在就业效应,其中对岗位数量有显著的负向冲击,工业机器人保有量每上升1%,就业岗位减少约4. 6%;对工资水平的影响整体上不明显。在考虑了劳动力市场的动态调节后,工业机器人使用对就业岗位的负面影响仍然存在,并随着"工业4. 0"概念的提出有所增强,对工资水平的影响则表现出时间异质性。进一步地,本文尝试使用工具变量解决潜在的内生性问题,结果稳健。最后,文章还探讨了工业机器人就业效应的行业异质性。本文的发现有助于正确认清"机器换人"对我国制造业就业市场的全面影响,并为引导人工智能技术的发展和确保就业稳定提供相应的政策建议。
Abstract：Using the data of manufacturing by industry in China from 2006 to 2017,this paper empirically studies the impact of using industrial robots on employment in manufacturing. The results show that the use of industrial robots has an employment effect on manufacturing industry,which has a significant negative impact on the number of jobs. For every 1% increase in the number of industrial robots,number of jobs decreases by about 4. 6%,while the impact on wage level is not obvious. Considering the dynamic adjustment of labor market,the negative effect on number of jobs still exists,and has been strengthened with the development of "industry 4. 0". The impact of robots on wage level also shows the time heterogeneity. Furthermore,this paper tries to solve the potential endogenous problems by using instrumental variables and the results remain robust.Finally,this paper discusses the industry heterogeneity of the employment effect of industrial robots. The findings of this paper will help us to correctly understand the overall impact of " machine replacing people" on China's manufacturing employment market and provide corresponding policy recommendations for guiding the development of artificial intelligence technology and ensuring employment stability.
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(1)国际机器人联盟(IFR)原文定义:“Industrial robots is an automatically controlled,reprogrammable multipurpose manipulator programmable in three or more axes．”(https://ifr.org/#topics)
(2)http://www.most.gov.cn/gnwkjdt/201304/t20130425_101089.html
(3)http://www.people.com.cn/GB/guoji/1029/2504329.html
(4)https://ec.europa.eu/programmes/horizon2020/en/h2020-section/robotics
(5)http://www.miit.gov.cn/n1146285/n1146352/n3054355/n3057585/n3057590/c3617837/content.html
(6)http://ghs.ndrc.gov.cn/ghwb/gjjgh/201706/t20170621_851920.html
(7)由于我国工业机器人数据从1999年才有记录，此处报告2001-2017年情况，因篇幅所限，全样本是1993-2017年以附表展示，见《统计研究》网站所列附件。下同。
(8)实际上，直到1999年IFR才有中国机器人保有量数据，为550台，同年全球保有量超过72万台，美国和德国超过8万台，日本超过3万台。
(1)https://ifr.org/free-downloads/
(1)http://www.gov.cn/zhuanti/2019qglh/2019lhzfgzbg/index.htm
(1)因篇幅所限，匹配结果在附录中展示，见《统计研究》网站。下同。
(1)由于同时控制行业固定效应和年份固定效应更能全面刻画实证模型，因篇幅所限，未控制年份固定效应的结果以附表展示，见《统计研究》网站所列附件。下同。
基本信息:
DOI：10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2020.01.006
中图分类号:F424;F249.2
引用信息:
[1]闫雪凌,朱博楷,马超.工业机器人使用与制造业就业:来自中国的证据[J].统计研究,2020,37(01):74-87.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2020.01.006.
基金信息:
四川大学中央高校基本科研业务费学院自主项目