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本文在现有的三区域产出溢出反馈模型基础上构建出衡量中美经济增加值和就业联系的测度方式,全面透视了中美两国的增加值和就业依存关系。结果发现:①通过全球价值链分工网络,中国最终需求对美国经济的贡献率不断上升,美国最终需求对中国经济的贡献率则在近期存在下降趋势。同时,中国的最终需求为美国创造了越来越多的就业岗位,而美国最终需求对中国的就业影响在近期处于下降阶段。②就双边贸易而言,中美贸易对两国的增加值和就业贡献均呈现出上升趋势。具体到产业渠道上,中国对美国的出口主要影响中国的计算机、电子和光学产品,纺织服装以及皮革制品,批发贸易(汽车和摩托车除外)等产业的增加值和就业。中国从美国的进口主要影响美国的法律、会计、总部及管理咨询,计算机、电子和光学产品,作物和畜牧业,行政和辅助服务活动等产业的增加值和就业。
Abstract：Based on the existing three-region output spillover feedback model,this paper constructs a method to measure the value added and employment linkages between China and the US. This paper makes a comprehensive illustration to the value added and employment linkages between China and the US. The result shows that: 1) through the global value chain network,the contribution rate of China's final demand to the US economy continued to rise,and the contribution rate of the US final demand to China's economy declined recently. At the same time,China's final demand has created more and more jobs for the US,and the impact of the US final demand on China 's employment has been declining recently; 2) China-US trade had an increasing contribution to the value added and employment of both countries. In terms of industrial channels,China's exports to the US mainly affect the value added and employment of China's computers,electronics and optical products,textiles,apparel and leather products and wholesale trade( except motor vehicles and motorcycles). China's imports from the US mainly affect the value added and employment of the US legal,accounting,head offices and management consultancy activities,computers,electronics and optical products,crop and animal husbandry and administrative and support service activities.
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(1)限于篇幅，产业层面的测算结果以附表1展示，见《统计研究》网站所列附件。下同。
基本信息:
DOI：10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2020.01.007
中图分类号:F752.7;F757.12
引用信息:
[1]谢锐,陈湘杰,张友国.全球价值链视角下中美贸易双向溢出效应研究[J].统计研究,2020,37(01):88-98.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2020.01.007.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金面上项目“国际贸易投资规则重构影响中国出口价值链升级:机制、效应及其路径研究”(71673083);; 研究阐释党的十九大精神国家社科基金专项“促进我国制造业迈向全球价值链中高端研究”(18VSJ055)
2020-01-25
2020-01-25