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本文将房价、住房面积、消费习惯及借贷约束等变量引入消费者最优选择模型中,构建出在综合考虑各个因素的条件下,能够检验房价波动对居民消费影响的动态面板模型,运用动态系统广义矩阵方法,采用我国29个省市的年度数据进行多角度的实证分析。研究显示:①我国城镇居民受到较强消费习惯与收入敏感性的影响;②房价波动对居住消费的影响为负,对非居住消费的影响为正,且均存在明显的非对称性;③中东西部地区房价波动对居住消费的影响均为负,但影响系数差异较大;对非居住消费的影响差异更为明显,对东西部地区影响为正,对中部地区为负。
Abstract：By introducing housing price,housing area,consumption habit and borrowing constraints into the standard consumer optimization model,and constructing a dynamic panel model,we can test the house price fluctuation on consumption.Using the model and the annual data of the 29 provinces and cities in our country,the results show that:(1)Urban residents are affected strongly by the consumption habit and income sensitivity;(2)The influence of house price fluctuation is negative on living consumption,and positive on non-living consumption,and all show obviously asymmetry;(3) In different areas,the influences of house price fluctuation on living consumption are all negative,but the coefficients are obviously different,the difference of influences on the non-living consumption is more apparent,the influence is positive in the eastern and western regions,whereas the central region is the negative.Furthermore,Analysis also indicates that,high housing price/income ratio,imbalance development of regional economic and the widening income gap are the main reasons which caused the empirical results.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2013.02.003
中图分类号:F224;F293.3;F126.1
引用信息:
[1]李春风,陈乐一,刘建江.房价波动对我国城镇居民消费的影响研究[J].统计研究,2013,30(02):14-22.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2013.02.003.
基金信息:
2011年度教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目“房价波动影响居民消费的机理及调控研究”(09CJL024)资助
2013-02-15
2013-02-15