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资金流量表是分析全社会资金流动的重要工具,但是它不能显示"谁向谁融资"的信息,因此难以全面展示部门间的资金流动,从而不利于分析金融与实体经济的关系。本文基于"从谁到谁"资金流量表的方法,估计了中国部门间的资金流量。本文的研究表明,中国的实体经济对金融部门的依赖程度较高,而且基本保持平稳。进一步地,本文建立了ARDL模型,分析中国的金融部门提供的融资与实体经济之间的关系。研究发现,金融部门向非金融企业部门提供的融资阻碍中国非金融企业部门增加值的增长,表明中国的金融部门向实体经济的资金配置有规模而缺乏效率。
Abstract：Flow of funds account is an important analytic tool for the flow of funds of a nation,but it does not show the information about funds"from whom to whom",therefore,it is unable to fully demonstrate the flow of funds among different institutional sectors as well as the linkage between the financial system and the real economy. This paper adopts a method to estimate the three-dimensional structure of the flow of funds account,namely " from-whom-to-whom" account based on the traditional flow of funds account,and estimates the flow of funds among sectors of China from 1992 to 2012. The estimated results show that the real economy had high dependence on the funds from financial sector in China,and the reliance remained quite stable. Furthermore,this paper establishes an Autoregressive Distributed Lag( ARDL) model to explore the relationship between funding from financial sector and the real economy in China,and the study finds that the financial sector's funding to non-financial corporate sector has significant negative impact on the growth of value added of nonfinancial corporate sector,which indicates the possibility that the financial sector lacks efficiency in allocating funds.
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1但是,如果就特定的金融工具编制“部门(资产方)×部门(负债方)”的资金流量表,或者就特定的机构部门编制其资金来源或资金使用的资金流量表(部门×工具)还是有可能的。例如,日本编制了反映非金融部门融资的资金流量表(Channels of Fund-raising by the Nonfinancial Sector),详细记录了非金融部门通过何种金融工具从哪些部门融入资金,不过从2012年起,日本停止编制该表。
1“金融工具资产组合假定”是指不论向哪个部门融出资金,同一机构部门在融出这些资金时,具有相同的金融工具结构。显然,一般而言,与金融工具资产组合假定相比,机构部门资产组合假定更符合实际。
1按照现有文献的处理,所有的资金依赖系数均为正值,容易理解,而本文的处理方式会导致负值系数,理解起来相对困难。负值aij应做如下解读:在部门j的总的资金来源中,对部门i偿还的或被部门i撤回的资金所占的比重为|aij|,可称为资金偿还或撤回系数。
2受篇幅限制,本文没有提供估算结果,如有需要,可通过邮件向作者索取。
基本信息:
DOI：10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2015.10.003
中图分类号:F832;F124.1
引用信息:
[1]李静萍.中国金融部门融资对实体经济增长的影响研究——基于“从谁到谁”资金流量表[J].统计研究,2015,32(10):21-31.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2015.10.003.
基金信息:
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“《中国国民经济核算体系》更新扩展及传播应用研究”(项目编号:14JJD910001)的阶段性成果;; 2014年度中国人民大学统计学院“985工程”重点研究项目“反映金融创新的资金流量表——编制方法与应用”的资助
2015-10-15
2015-10-15