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金融市场改革进程的相对滞后,使得融资难成为中国多数企业的共性特征,并深刻影响其出口的稳定性和持续增长。本文基于1998—2007年中国工业企业数据,通过Cox模型和Weibull模型等生存分析技术,从微观视角描述了中国企业出口持续时间的分布特征,并利用多种稳健性方法检验了融资约束对不同企业出口持续时间的影响。研究发现:中国企业出口持续时间的风险函数具有显著的负时间依赖特征,融资约束的加剧缩短了企业的出口持续时间;其中,对国有企业出口持续时间的抑制作用最为明显,对外资企业的影响次之,对非国有内资企业的影响最小。进一步的研究也表明,融资约束的加剧对金融市场化水平较高地区的企业和大、中规模企业出口持续时间的负向影响小于对金融市场化水平较低的地区和小规模企业的影响,利用两种融资约束指标、首个和唯一持续时间段的估计均得到一致结论。
Abstract：Financial market reform process has lagged behind,making the problem of financing become a common feature of most Chinese enterprises,and profoundly affect the stability and sustainable growth of firms' export. Based on 1998—2007 China's industrial enterprises data and survival analysis techniques such as Cox model and Weibull model,it describes the distribution of Chinese enterprises' exporting duration from the microscopic perspective,and utilizes a variety of robustness methods to test the impact of financing constraints on exports' duration of different enterprise. It shows that the risk function of Chinese export duration has significant negative time-dependent features,and the intensification of financing constraints is not beneficial for extending the duration of export business. Specifically,the inhibition effect of exported duration on State-owned enterprises is more obvious than foreign-funded enterprises and non-state-funded enterprises. It also shows that the negative impact on enterprises located in areas which has higher level of financial market and on large and medium scale firms is less than that on enterprises in areas with lower level of financial market and small scale enterprises. Besides,it gets consistent results between the first duration period sample and the only sustained period by utilizing two indicators of financial constraints.
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(1)当然,此时企业可能是出口交货值为0,但仍然有内销,也可能是企业破产退出市场,只要任有其一,即视为风险事件发生。
(2)如罗长远和陈琳(2013)、Feenstra等(2011)和于洪霞等(2011)的研究。
(3)比如Besedes(2008)针对美国、Sabuhoro J.B.等(2006)针对加拿大、Nitsch(2009)针对德国、陈勇兵等(2012)针对中国等的研究。
(1)根据钱俊(2009)对Cox回归模型的研究,本文计算出样本数据的总删失比例约为30.65%,符合Cox回归模型对删失数据的比例要求。
(1)相关融资约束测算的文献主要包括:Li和Yu(2009)、Poncet等,2010)、Nickell和Nicolitsas(1999)、Greenaway等(2005,2007)、Muuls(2008)、孙灵燕和李荣林(2011)、罗长远和陈琳(2012)。
(1)需要说明的是,为从多个角度验证本文结论的可靠性,我们将企业现金流占固定资产比重(rzy_2)处理为离散变量(0和1),且与利用连续变量的回归结果基本一致,限于篇幅并未详细报告,备索。
(2)具体做法参见鲁晓东和连玉君(2012)。
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(1)具体划分如下:将国有企业、国有联营企业和国有独资公司视为国有企业,将外商投资企业、中外合资经营企业、中外合作经营企业、外资(独资)企业、外商投资股份有限公司、港澳台投资企业、与港澳台合资经营企业、与港澳台合作经营企业、港澳台独资经营企业、港澳台投资股份有限公司等视为外资企业,其余类型则视为非国有内资企业。
(1)限于篇幅,本文并没有报告各样本首个持续时间段和唯一持续时间段的估计结果。
基本信息:
DOI：10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2016.06.004
中图分类号:F279.2;F752.62
引用信息:
[1]李宏兵,蔡宏波,胡翔斌.融资约束如何影响中国企业的出口持续时间[J].统计研究,2016,33(06):30-41.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2016.06.004.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金青年项目“异质性框架下出口内生型市场邻近与服务业集聚的工资差距效应研究”(71503024);; 北京市社科联青年社科人才资助项目“北京市服务业双向投资与创新竞争力提升研究”(20155KL013);; 国家社会科学基金重大项目“加快劳动力要素自由流动的对外贸易战略转型研究”(14ZDA082)的资助
2016-06-15
2016-06-15