统计研究

基于新发展理念，本文构建了包含数字生产力、协作生产力、绿色生产力、开放生产力和共享生产力的新质生产力发展水平综合评价指标体系，借助纵横向拉开档次法对我国各省份新质生产力发展水平进行测度，运用核密度估计、Dagum基尼系数、修正的引力模型和社会网络分析方法刻画了新质生产力发展水平的动态演进、地区差异及空间关联特征。研究表明，2013—2023年我国新质生产力发展水平呈逐年跃升态势，总体呈现东高西低的分布格局；与中部地区展现出“双峰并峙”的态势不同，东部与西部地区的新质生产力发展水平呈现出“单峰驱动”的势头；随着创新驱动发展战略的深入推进，我国新质生产力发展呈现结构性失衡样态，非均衡特征日趋显著，地区间差距的扩大伴随着空间分化程度的提升；新质生产力的空间网络布局已实现从离散状态向集聚形态的系统性重构，宏观上形成了东稠西疏的核心–边缘格局；随着各省份在新质生产力关联网络中位势的动态跃迁，新质生产力的空间布局逐渐分化为华北板块、长江中下游与珠三角板块、东北与西北板块以及西部板块，但板块间的联动效应亟待强化。有鉴于此，应全面深化改革形成适应新质生产力的新型生产关系，立足地区资源禀赋，科学赋能新质生产力发展。同时，应深化区域协调发展战略以构筑稳固且高效的新质生产力联动网络，为经济高质量发展注入强劲动能。

Based on the new development philosophy, this study constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for the development level of new-quality productive forces, encompassing digital productivity, collaborative productivity, green productivity, open productivity, and shared productivity. Utilizing the vertical and horizontal range adjustment method, it measures the development level of new-quality productive forces across China's provinces from 2013 to 2023. Through methodologies including kernel density estimation, Dagum Gini coefficient, modified gravity model, and social network analysis, the study delineates the dynamic evolution, regional disparities, and spatial correlation characteristics of new-quality productive forces. Key findings reveal a steady upward trajectory in China's new-quality productive forces during the period, with an overall distribution pattern of high in the east, low in the west. Notably, while central China exhibits a “dual-peak coexistence” trend, eastern and western regions demonstrate “single-peak-driven” growth momentum. Despite the deep implementation of the innovation-driven development strategies, structural imbalances in new-quality productive forces have intensified, with widening cross-regional disparities accompanied by heightened spatial differentiation. The spatial network layout of new-quality productive forces has undergone systemic reconfiguration, transitioning from fragmentation to agglomeration and forming a macro core-periphery structure that's dense in the east, sparse in the west. Dynamic shifts in provincial positional potential within the network have led to the segmentation of spatial patterns into the North China Plate, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta Plate, Northeast and Northwest China Plate, and Western China Plate, though inter-plate linkage effects require strengthening. To address these challenges, the study advocates comprehensive reform to foster new production relations aligned with new-quality productive forces, scientific empowerment of regional development based on the resource endowments, and the strengthening of coordinated regional development strategy to build a robust and efficient interconnected network, thereby injecting strong momentum for high-quality economic development.