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数字技术的迅猛发展与广泛应用促进产品更新替代及生产效率提升，通过创造性破坏促进经济增长。本文立足国民经济核算框架，探究创造性破坏引致经济漏测的内在机理，构建价格指数中质量变化和固定篮子偏差的估算模型以及经济增速偏差的敏感性分析框架，并利用京东消费大数据测算我国计算机行业经济增长偏差。结果显示，2017—2022年我国计算机行业同比价格指数年均被高估5.38个百分点，据此估算得到这一时期全行业经济增速年均被低估约0.059个百分点。采用跨国转移法的进一步估算结果表明，2004—2014年我国计算机行业的平均经济增速偏差为0.317%，高出美国同期0.08个百分点。
Abstract：The rapid development and wide application of digital technology has given rise to product innovation, replacement, and enhanced production efficiency, promoting economic growth through the creative destruction. This paper explores the mechanism of underestimated economic growth caused by creative destruction in accordance with the framework of national economic accounting, and correspondly establishes an analytical framework for the estimation of the quality change bias and the fixed basket bias in price indices and the sensitivity of the economic growth bias. The big data from JD.com is then utilized to estimate the growth bias of China's computer industry caused by creative destruction. The findings show that the year-on-year price index of China's computer industry was overestimated by an average of 5.38percentage points per year from 2017 to 2022, according to which the estimation yields an average annual underestimation of China's economic growth rate of about 0.059 percentage points in this period. Further estimation based on the cross-country transfer method shows that the average bias of China's computer industry value-added growth rate from 2004 to 2014 is 0.317%, higher than that of the United States by0.08% over the same period.
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(1)创造性破坏也会对经济社会发展造成负面影响，如创新失败带来企业附加成本以及失业等。但总体而言，创造性破坏的这些负面效应往往会被抵消，而表现出对经济增长的正向促进作用。
(1)统计部门抽选的一组固定数量的商品和服务，称为一篮子商品和服务。而在一定时期内把一篮子商品和服务固定，称为固定篮子。
(1)Hedonic价格指数的估计方法有Hedonic虚拟时间法、直接Hedonic法、Hedonic价格估计法和Hedonic调整系数法等（Triplett,2004）。本文综合考虑方法特性和所用数据特征，最终选择使用Hedonic价格估计法进行估计。
(1)因篇幅所限，该数据集涉及的主要基本分类产品信息以附表1展示，见《统计研究》网站所列附件。
(1)具体的匹配规则为，若某规格品在两个时期的型号和特征属性完全一致，则匹配成功。否则，记该规格品在两期不匹配。
(1)目前，未有公开的计算机及其外围设备的居民消费价格指数和计算机及其外围设备的固定资产投资价格指数。因此，需要估算计算机及其外围设备质量调整前的居民消费价格指数和质量调整前的固定资产投资价格指数（质量调整前的价格指数即传统价格指数）。
基本信息:
DOI：10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2025.05.008
中图分类号:F49;F426.67
引用信息:
[1]雷泽坤,郑正喜.创造性破坏的经济增长效应漏测研究——以计算机行业为例[J].统计研究,2025,42(05):104-117.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2025.05.008.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金青年项目“数字化转型条件下价格指数编制方法改进与不变价GDP核算的优化”(21CTJ001)
2025-05-25
2025-05-25