统计研究

在“一带一路”贸易网络日趋复杂的背景下，本文以贸易群体为视角，创新性地引入含有互惠性和网络闭合机制的指数随机图模型（ERGM），探讨和比较2014年、2018年与2020年涉及双边贸易和群体贸易的“一带一路”贸易网络结构、形成机制以及影响因素。研究表明，“一带一路”倡议提出以来，贸易群体已经成为现阶段“一带一路”沿线国家间贸易网络的主要特征；贸易网络呈现出由多个核心国家带动周边小国贸易联动并促使已有贸易群体逐渐融合的贸易格局；从贸易整体角度看，贸易网络表现为以高度节点和重叠三角结构为核心的“松散的”核心-外围结构。从贸易群体角度看，2014—2020年，贸易方式从具有传递闭合的直接贸易转化为具有循环闭合的间接贸易，进而又转为具有扩张性闭合的贸易方式。贸易群体的存在放大了贸易网络互补性与大国效应的积极作用。随着“一带一路”倡议的推进，我国所在的中国-东南亚贸易群体逐渐扩大，表明“一带一路”倡议的实施提升了我国的影响力，也促进了“一带一路”沿线各国间贸易关系发展。本文根据贸易网络和贸易群体特征有针对性地提出政策建议，为推进“一带一路”建设发展提供参考。

In the context of the increasingly complex trade network of the “Belt and Road”, this paper innovatively introduces the Exponential Random Graph Model(ERGM) with reciprocity and network closure mechanism from the perspective of trade groups, and discusses and compares the structure,formation mechanism and influencing factors of the “Belt and Road” trade network involving bilateral trade and group trade in 2014, 2018 and 2020. The research shows that since the Belt and Road Initiative was put forward, trade groups have become the main characteristic of the trade network of countries along the “Belt and Road” at the present stage; The trade network presents a trade pattern in which several core countries drive the trade linkage of surrounding small countries and promote the gradual integration of existing trade groups; From the perspective of trade as a whole, the network shows a “loose” core-periphery structure with high nodes and overlapping triangular structure as the core; From the perspective of trade groups, from 2014 to 2020, the mode of trade has changed from direct trade with transmission closure to indirect trade with circular closure, and then to trade with expansionary closure. The existence of trade groups amplifies the positive role of complementary trade networks and the effect of major countries. With the promotion of the Belt and Road Initiative, the China-Southeast Asia Trade Group has gradually expanded, which shows that the proposal and development of the Belt and Road Initiative has enhanced China's influence and promoted the development of trade relations among countries along the “Belt and Road”. According to the characteristics of trade networks and trade groups, policy suggestions are put forward, which provide a reference for promoting the development of the “Belt and Road”.