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本文基于我国2005—2017年30个省(区、市)面板数据,以碳排放权交易试点政策为准自然试验,采用双重差分模型和空间计量方法,检验碳排放权交易政策的有效性、影响机制和"两难问题"。结果发现:市场型环境政策有效且存在跨界减排效应,即碳排放权交易政策可以降低本地碳排放,其碳减排效应逐年增强,而且同期本地碳交易政策实施可以形成邻地示范效应,推动相邻地区碳减排。碳排放权交易政策主要通过调整能源结构,提高地区技术水平,推动地区绿色技术发展,实现地区碳减排,且当前阶段能源结构调整的碳减排效应最强,约占总体减排效应的36.9%,而绿色技术进步的贡献仅为11.6%。碳排放权交易政策可以有效克服环境与经济的"两难问题",同步实现碳减排和提高经济效率的双重目标,实现经济与环境相容发展。
Abstract：Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2017,we take the carbon emission trading pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment and use the DID model and spatial econometric method to test the validity,impact mechanism and the dilemma of the carbon emission trading policy. The results show that the transboundary emission reduction effect exists across regions,and carbon emission trading policy can effectively promote regional carbon emission reduction. With the implementation of the policy,its emission reduction effect increases year by year,and the implementation of a local carbon trading policy can have a demonstration effect to promote carbon emission reduction in neighboring regions. The carbon emission trading policy mainly adjusts the clean energy consumption structure and improves the regional green technology progress to achieve regional emission reduction. Moreover,the carbon emission reduction effect of the current energy structure adjustment is the strongest mechanism,accounting for about 36. 9% of the overall emission reduction effect,and the contribution of the green technology progress is only 11. 6%. Carbon emission trading policy would solve the dilemma of environment and economic growth,and simultaneously promote carbon emission reduction and high-quality economic development.
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(1)世界知识产权组织(WIPO)提供的绿色专利清单(http://www.wipo.int/classifications/ipc/en/est)。
(2)因篇幅所限，变量描述性统计以附表1展示，见《统计研究》网站所列附件。下同。
(3)因篇幅所限，各变量间的相关系数以附表2展示。
基本信息:
DOI：10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2021.10.005
中图分类号:X196;F832.5
引用信息:
[1]董直庆,王辉.市场型环境规制政策有效性检验——来自碳排放权交易政策视角的经验证据[J].统计研究,2021,38(10):48-61.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2021.10.005.
基金信息:
中国工程院项目“吉林省高质量发展实现路径研究”(JL2020-004); 华东师范大学经济与管理学部博士研究生科研创新基金重点项目“异质性政策、技术进步方向和环境全要素生产率”(2018FEM-BCKZD002)
2021-11-10
2021-11-10
2021-11-10