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互联网作为信息搜寻和传播的重要渠道,有利于缓解国际市场不确定性对企业出口决策的影响,从而有助于稳定企业出口预期,保障出口企业的持续生存。本文首先基于Fernandes和Tang(2014)的研究框架将互联网深化程度和出口集聚同时纳入到异质性贸易企业模型,在剥离出口集聚对企业出口行为影响的基础上,从理论视角揭示了互联网深化程度提高影响企业出口行为特别是出口持续生存的内在机理与方向。研究发现,不同于出口集聚会同时影响企业的需求冲击和成本冲击,互联网深化带来的信息溢出效应会通过贝叶斯法则(Bayesian Rule)使得企业修正其对国际市场不确定性的预期,提高其对目的国市场成本冲击的估计精度,从而在互联网深化程度较高的城市,企业进入出口市场的临界生产率较低,有利于其出口参与度和出口稳定性的提高。然而互联网深化程度提高不影响企业在目的国市场产品出口的集约边际。本文使用2000-2013年中国工业企业数据库、中国海关数据库和中国城市统计年鉴数据库的匹配数据从企业-目的国-产品层面实证检验了本文的理论命题。研究表明,我国政府应充分发挥互联网发展降低信息不确定性的微观机制,以推动外贸的平稳增长。
Abstract：As an important tool to search and disseminate information,the Internet helps to moderate the impact of international market uncertainty on enterprise export decision-making,which is helpful to stabilize enterprise export expectations and guarantee the sustainable duration of export enterprises. This paper extends the research framework of Fernandes and Tang( 2014) to include the Internet penetration and export agglomeration into the framework of the heterogeneous trade enterprise model. By separating the influence of export agglomeration on enterprise export behavior,the paper theoretically investigates the mechanism and direction of increased Internet penetration affecting enterprise export behavior,especially the export sustainable duration. In our setting,different from export agglomeration that affects both need shock and cost shock of enterprises,the information spillover effect of Internet penetration will make enterprises modify the expectations of international market uncertainty by the Bayesian Rule. For cities with high penetration of the Internet,enterprises will estimate the cost shock of the destination market more accurately,thus low critical productivity of enterprises entering the export market can improve export participation and export stability. However,the increased Internet penetration has no effect on the intensive margin of enterprises in the destination market.Using the matching data of the Chinese industrial enterprise database,Chinese customs database,and Chinese city statistical yearbook database from 2000 to 2013,the empirical results support the theoretical prediction on the enterprise,destination country,and product levels. Our paper implies that the Chinese government should take full advantage of the micro mechanism of the Internet reducing information uncertainty and promote the stable growth of foreign trade.
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(1)因篇幅所限，对市场平均偏好程度lndj分布的贝叶斯更新推导公式以附件1展示，见《统计研究》网站所列附件。下同。
(1)给定同一企业-产品-目地国组合，企业可能有多次进入退出行为，如企业在样本期间其出口虚拟变量是0110011。根据本文对进入虚拟变量的设定，那么企业进入变量entrycijpt可表示为．1..01．。
(1)该数据库的统计对象为规模以上工业法人企业，包括全部国有和年主营业务收入500万元及以上(2011年以后为2000万元以上)的非国有工业法人企业，与《中国统计年鉴》的工业部分和《中国工业统计年鉴》中的覆盖范围一致。
(1)因篇幅所限，变量的描述性统计以附表1展示。
(2)由于Xtlogit模型回归无法进行聚类，因此第(5)列的标准误是企业层面的稳健标准误。同时Stata中Xtlogit回归不提供Pseudo R2。
(1)Probit模型下的回归结果类似。
(2)因篇幅所限，稳健性分析的完整回归结果以附表2~6展示。
基本信息:
DOI：10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2021.07.003
中图分类号:F752.62
引用信息:
[1]赵瑞丽,谭用,崔凯雯.互联网深化、信息不确定性与企业出口平稳性[J].统计研究,2021,38(07):32-46.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2021.07.003.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金青年项目“中国企业通过品牌构建提升出口竞争力的路径与策略研究”(71703067)
2021-06-29
2021-06-29
2021-06-29