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本文构建动态可计算一般均衡模型来定量研究国际石油价格上涨对我国经济的影响。研究结果表明,国际石油价格上升对我国实际GDP、投资、居民收入和进出口额等主要经济指标均有不利影响;技术进步是抵消国际油价上升的重要工具。最后,本文根据实证结果提出了一些政策建议。
Abstract：A Computable General Equilibrium( CGE) model is constructed to quantitatively evaluate the effect of price shocks in international crude oil market on the Chinese economy. The main results are summarized as follows: international oil price rising has negative impact on tha main economic indicators of China,such as real GDP,investment,residents' income,imports and exports. And technical progress is key tool to offset international oil price rising. Based on the simulation results,we put forward some policy proposals.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2014.08.007
中图分类号:F416.22;F124
引用信息:
[1]魏巍贤,高中元,马喜立.国际油价波动对中国经济影响的一般均衡分析[J].统计研究,2014,31(08):46-51.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2014.08.007.
2014-08-15
2014-08-15