统计研究

传统的偏离-份额分析模型没有考虑区域之间的空间交互作用,为此国外出现了空间拓展模型的探索、论证与应用,然而目前国内仍主要停留在对传统模型的应用。本文介绍了如何构建空间权重矩阵来表示区域间的空间相互作用,并介绍了国外较成熟的偏离-份额分析空间模型,并以江苏为例应用偏离-份额分析传统模型和空间模型进行了对比分析。结果表明,江苏省第二、三产业在全国具有较强的竞争力,经济总量及各产业的增长中,竞争力因素比产业结构因素贡献更大;但相对周边邻近省份江苏各产业并没有表现出竞争优势;邻近省份对江苏经济增长产生了较大的正面影响,其中浙江影响最大,但江苏没有能够充分利用这种影响,因此带来了一定的理论经济损失。

Traditional Shift-share Analysis doesn't consider the spatial interaction.Recent years,spatial model has been developed abroad,but in China we still stay in the traditional application.This paper explores how to construct spatial weights denoting interaction of different regions,and introduces spatial shift-share model used widely abroad.Comparing the empirical results of traditional and spatial model,Jiang Su province as an example,we find that Jiang Su has a stronger competitiveness in the second industry and tertiary industry but shows no competitive advantage relative to its surrounding neighboring provinces.Although Neighboring provinces make great positive effects to the growth of Jiang Su,the failure of making full use of these effects results in the economic loss in theory.