统计研究

本文采用拓展的永续盘存法，系统估算了全国和各省份2003—2021年新型基础设施的全套资本存量，并从财富性视角编制新型基础设施资产负债表，从生产性视角估计其产出弹性值。研究发现，我国新型基础设施资本存量净额以14%左右的年均增速攀升，截至2021年年底达到7.102万亿元。东部、中部和西部地区在其中的占比分别为47.170%、29.555%和23.275%，细分类型后的占比排序从高到低依次为创新基础设施、信息基础设施和融合基础设施。整体以及信息基础设施、融合基础设施和创新基础设施的资本产出弹性值分别为0.063、0.008、0.031和0.044。其中，融合基础设施的资本产出弹性值持续上升，创新基础设施不断降低，而整体和信息基础设施并未发生显著变化。同时，信息基础设施、融合基础设施的资本产出弹性值均在东部地区最高，而创新基础设施在中部和西部地区更高。本文的研究结论有助于为优化新型基础设施投资策略、推动区域经济转型升级和实现高质量发展提供量化支撑。

This paper uses an extended perpetual inventory method to carefully assess the full capital stock of new infrastructure at the national and provincial levels of China from 2003 to 2021, and further develops a balance sheet of new infrastructure from a wealth perspective and estimates its output elasticity value from a productivity perspective. The study finds that: The net capital stock of China's new infrastructure climbs at an average annual growth rate of about 14%, reaching 7.102 trillion yuan by the end of 2021; the shares of the eastern, central and western regions in it are 47.170%, 29.555%, and 23.275% respectively, and the subgroups of the share are ranked from highest to lowest as innovation infrastructure, information infrastructure and convergence infrastructure. The capital output elasticity values of overall information infrastructure, convergence infrastructure, and innovation infrastructure are 0.063, 0.008, 0.031 and 0.044, respectively. Among them, the capital output elasticity value of convergence infrastructure continues to increase, innovation infrastructure continues to decrease, while overall and information infrastructure does not undergo significant changes. Meanwhile, the capital output elasticity values of information infrastructure and convergence infrastructure are both the all highest in the eastern region, while innovation infrastructure is higher in the central and western regions. The research findings of this study provide quantitative support for optimizing new infrastructure investment strategies, promoting regional economic transformation and upgrading, and achieving high-quality development.