统计研究

基于按SITC REV.23位数分类的中印两国的出口产品数据,本文分析两国出口贸易结构的变化,计算两国贸易竞争力、贸易互补性、相似性指数以及出口贸易的技术复杂度,探讨了两国之间的贸易关系。中印两国的出口贸易结构都在不断优化,技术水平在不断上升,但中国出口贸易技术结构改善程度远高于印度。中印在出口贸易结构、贸易品的技术层次方面存在差异,两国之间并不构成完全的贸易竞争,而是存在明显上升的互补性趋势。因此中印之间建立自由贸易区,有利于扩大双方的贸易和投资规模,发挥优势互补,促进产业结构调整和技术水平提升,达到"双赢"的局面。

According to SITC REV.2 3,this paper explores trade relationship between China and India by analyzing changes of export trade structures and measuring both countries' trade competitive power,complementarities,similarity index and Technology Sophistication of export trade.Empirical results show that export trade structures of both countries have been optimizing and technology levels have been rising.However,technical structure improvement of China's export is much higher than that of India.There exist differences on export structure and technology level between China and India.So the relation between two countries is not complete competition but strong complementarity.Establishing a free trade area between them can enlarge bilateral trade and investment,bring complementary advantages into full play,accelerate adjustment of industry structure and advance of technology and achieve the "win-win" situation in final.