统计研究

制定公平有效的省域碳排放权分配方案，不仅有利于我国减排目标成功向区域分解落实，而且有利于推动我国省域碳减排高效公平。本文利用多区域投入产出（MRIO）模型研究我国省域碳转移，结合增加值贸易分别测算生产者、消费者和共担责任下的省域碳排放量，进而利用ZSG-DEA模型和熵值法，从公平、效率、兼顾公平和效率三个维度给出7种省域碳排放权分配方案。研究发现，我国各省份在不同碳减排责任下测算的碳排放量存在显著差异，经济发展水平较高省份在消费者责任下的碳排放量显著大于生产者责任下的碳排放量，而经济发展水平较低省份或者能源化工大省则在生产者责任下的碳排放量显著大于消费者责任下的碳排放量。此外，23个省份共担责任下的碳排放量介于生产者责任和消费者责任之间。相比于只考虑公平或效率维度的碳排放权分配方案，兼顾公平和效率维度的分配方案减排成本较低，分配结果更为公平。其中，消费–效率原则的分配方案下，全国平均减排成本最小，减排总收益较高，对经济发展水平较低省份来说更具优势。这种碳排放权分配方案将有利于我国经济整体的低碳化发展，可为提高碳排放总量控制效率、提升碳减排成本有效性、实现“双碳”目标提供决策参考。

The formulation of a fair and effective plan for the distribution of carbon emission rights among provinces not only conduces to the successful regional decomposition of emission reduction targets, but also promotes efficient and fair carbon emission reduction in China's provinces. In this paper, the Multi-Region Input-Output(MRIO) model is used to study the carbon emission transfer among provinces in China. And combined with value-added trade, the carbon emissions of provinces under producer responsibility, consumer responsibility and shared responsibility are estimated. Based on ZSG-DEA model and entropy method, 7 provincial carbon emission allocation schemes are given from three dimensions: fairness, efficiency, both fairness and efficiency. The results show that there are significant differences in carbon emissions estimated under different responsibility to cut emissions among Chinese provinces. The carbon emissions of provinces with a higher economic development level under consumer responsibility are significantly greater than under producer responsibility. However, provinces with a lower economic development level or intensive energy and chemical industry have significantly more carbon emissions under producer responsibility than under consumer responsibility. Besides, 23 provinces' carbon emissions under shared responsibility fall somewhere between producer responsibility and consumer responsibility. In addition, compared with the carbon emission right allocation schemes that only consider the fairness or efficiency dimension, the cost of carbon emission reduction is lower and the distribution result is fairer under the allocation scheme that takes both fairness and efficiency dimensions into consideration. Among them, under the allocation scheme based on the consumption-efficiency principle, the national average cost of carbon emission reduction is the smallest, and the total benefit of carbon emission reduction is relatively high, which is more advantageous for the provinces with a lower economic development level. This carbon emission rights allocation scheme will be beneficial to the overall low-carbon economic development of China and provide decision-making reference for improving the efficiency of total carbon emission control, improving the effectiveness of carbon reduction costs and realizing the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.