统计研究

农业规模经营是我国农业强国建设的重要动能。依托农机服务市场发育推进服务规模经营已得到学术界的广泛认同，但服务规模经营会给传统的农地规模经营路径带来何种改变尚不明晰。本文将两类农业规模经营路径纳入同一分析框架，采用5轮中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据，考察农机服务市场发育对农地流转的影响。研究表明，第一，农机服务市场发育会促进农户转入农地和抑制农户转出农地，且通过提升农户的农业生产效率来影响其农地流转行为；第二，农机服务市场发育对农户扩大农地经营规模的促进作用在获得农业补贴和未自购农机的农户中更明显；第三，农机服务市场发育能够促进农户农地流转有偿化；第四，对于未融入农业机械化进程的农户而言，农机服务市场发育会促使其转出农地，但其不会因此退出农业经营。上述结果表明服务规模经营能够对农地规模经营起到带动作用，但这一带动作用又具有不彻底性。本文揭示了服务规模经营与农地规模经营协同发展的可行性，为完善推进农业规模经营的相关政策提供实证依据。

Agricultural scale management is an important driving force for China to build up its strength in agriculture. The significance of facilitating service scale management through the development of agricultural machinery service market has been widely recognized by academia. However, it is still not clear what changes service scale management will bring to the traditional farmland scale management path. This paper includes two types of agricultural scale management paths in the same analytical framework, and adopts five rounds of China Family Panel Studies data to investigate the impact of the development of agricultural machinery service market on farmland transfer. The results show that, firstly, the development of agricultural machinery service market encourages rural households to transfer in farmland while discouraging them from transferring out their farmland, and it affects their farmland transfer behavior by improving the efficiency in agricultural production. Secondly, the promotional effect of the development of agricultural machinery service market on rural households' expansion of farmland management scale is more obvious among those who have received agricultural subsidies and those who haven't purchase agricultural machinery on their own. Thirdly, the development of agricultural machinery service market contributes to rural households' compensation-based farmland transfer. Fourthly, for rural households that have no access to agricultural mechanization, the development of agricultural machinery service prompts them to transfer out farmland, but it may not result in their withdrawal from agricultural management. The above results show that service scale management can play a role in promoting farmland scale management, and this promotional effect is inexhaustive at the same time. This paper reveals the feasibility of the coordinated development of service scale management and farmland scale management, which provides empirical evidences to improve policies aiming at promoting agricultural scale.