统计研究

本文在一般均衡OLG模型框架内对比分析了提高养老金缴费率和推迟退休年龄对劳均资本存量、个人和社会统筹账户养老金水平等经济变量的影响。分析结果表明:第一、提高个人账户缴费率除了能增加个人账户养老金和降低私人储蓄外,对劳均资本存量等其他经济变量均没有影响。第二、推迟退休和提高社会统筹缴费率都会降低劳均资本存量、单位工资、私人储蓄、第一期消费及效用水平;第三、推迟退休和提高社会统筹缴费率都能提高资本回报率、个人和社会统筹账户养老金收益水平;第四、推迟退休可以提高第二期的消费水平,而提高社会统筹缴费率却会降低第二期的消费水平。上述结果表明,推迟退休的政策选择要优于提高社会统筹缴费率的政策。

This paper investigates and compares the effects of improving the contribution rate and postponing the retirement age on capital stock per worker,personal and social pooling account pension level and other economic viarables within the framework of General equilibrium OLG model.Our results show that,firstly,improving the contribution rate of personal accounts has no effect on capital stock per worker and other variables except that it can improve personal account pension and reduce private savings.Secondly,capital stock per worker,wage,private savings,consumption of the first period and utility will be reduced by postponing retirement age and improving contribution rate of the social pooling account.Thirdly,return to capital,personal accounts pension and social pooling account pension can be improved by postponing retirement age and improving contribution rate of the social pooling account.Fourthly,consumption of the second period can be improved by postponing retirement age,but adverse when increasing contribution rate of the social pooling account.These results suggest that postponing retirement age is superior to improving contribution rate of the social pooling account.