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贫困脆弱性是事前预测贫困风险，其度量既应考虑风险本身，更应考虑风险应对，还要能反映风险“冲击—应对”的结果。本文基于灾害社会学风险“冲击—应对”分析框架，重新诠释贫困脆弱性内涵与生成，改良贫困脆弱性度量模型，采用中国家庭追踪调查（2018）数据，测度了农户家庭贫困脆弱性。研究表明：贫困脆弱性取决于人们的福利水平及风险冲击与风险应对两种力量的对比，福利水平越高、风险冲击力越弱、风险应对能力越强，则贫困脆弱性越低；风险冲击仅仅是贫困脆弱性的诱因，风险应对能力不足才是贫困脆弱性的根本，风险应对能力既能通过降低福利波动，又能通过提升福利水平来消减贫困脆弱性；农户家庭内部风险越大贫困脆弱性越高，事前缓解风险比事后应付风险、提升发展机会比增强发展能力对降低农户贫困脆弱性更为重要；当前我国仍然存在风险冲击大、应对能力弱导致的农户家庭贫困脆弱性问题，且脱贫群体、脱贫地区和欠发达地区农户家庭贫困脆弱性更大。本文对于在巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接的过渡阶段，健全防止返贫动态监测和帮扶机制，防止规模性返贫具有一定参考价值。
Abstract：Poverty vulnerability is a forecast of poverty risk, and its measurement should not only consider the risk itself, but also consider the risk response, and reflect the result of risk “shock and response”. Based on the risk “shock-response” analysis framework of disaster sociology, this paper reinterprets the connotation and generation of poverty vulnerability, improves the poverty vulnerability measurement model, and measures the poverty vulnerability of peasant households using data from the Chinese Household Tracking Survey(2018). The results show that the vulnerability to poverty depends on people's welfare level and the comparison between risk impact and risk response. The higher the welfare level, the weaker the risk impact and the stronger the risk response ability, the lower the vulnerability to poverty. The risk impact is only the trigger of poverty vulnerability, and the risk response capacity is the root of poverty vulnerability. The risk response capacity can reduce the poverty vulnerability by reducing the welfare fluctuation and improving the welfare level. The greater the synergistic risk, the higher the poverty vulnerability of peasant households. To reduce the poverty vulnerability of peasant households, it is more important to mitigate the risk before the event than to cope with the risk after the event, and to enhance the development opportunity than to enhance the development capacity. At present, the vulnerability of rural households to poverty caused by large risk impact and weak response ability in China is prominent, and the vulnerability of rural households to poverty is more significant in out-of-poverty groups, out-of-poverty areas and underdeveloped areas. Therefore, in the transition stage from retaining the achievement of poverty elimination to rural revitalization, poverty vulnerability should be the focus of attention.
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(1)引自习近平总书记在2020年3月6日决战决胜脱贫攻坚座谈会上的讲话。
(2)假设同一时间A、B两个家庭均因疾病产生20万元的费用，家庭A年收入1万元且几无家底，家庭B年收入1000万元且积累了丰厚的家产，则家庭A可能因病陷入困境，而家庭B则几乎没有应对压力和任何影响，甚至因其事前购买了商业保险而无需动用家产。
(1)进一步地，灾害社会学认为，灾害事件只是“触发器”和“催化剂”，应对能力不足才是灾害形成的根源，表现为同一致灾强度下灾情随应对能力的增强而缩小，呈现“小灾大害”和“大灾小害”的普遍现象。
(1)因篇幅所限，变量描述性统计以附表1展示，见《统计研究》网站所列附件。下同。
(1)风险暴露度为社会灾害学研究脆弱性提出的概念，类似于财务管理、金融管理上的“风险敞口”概念。
(1)因篇幅所限，模型可靠性检验过程和结果以附录1展示。
(2)异地生态扶贫搬迁一定程度上使得农户远离了生态脆弱、自然风险较大的区域。
基本信息:
DOI：10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2022.11.009
中图分类号:F323.8
引用信息:
[1]姚领,谢家智.贫困脆弱性的生成与测度——基于风险“冲击——应对”的视角[J].统计研究,2022,39(11):117-132.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2022.11.009.
基金信息:
重庆市社会科学规划项目“转型发展进程中的农户社会行为与贫困脆弱性研究”（2021BS043）;重庆市社会科学规划项目“乡村振兴视域下信贷约束对农户多维相对贫困的影响效应研究”（2019BS051）; 国家社会科学基金青年项目“基于机器学习的多维相对贫困精准识别、测度与预警机制研究”（21CTJ007）
2022-11-25
2022-11-25