统计研究

提升创新质量是我国加快建设世界科技创新强国的重要举措，以数字经济为新型载体驱动创新发展也已经上升到战略层面。本文利用更具国际认可性的专利被引次数作为创新质量的表征变量，并通过CRITIC-G1-Bonferroni算子测度包含了数字环境、数字产业化以及产业数字化三个维度的数字经济发展指数。基于2011—2019年我国省级面板数据，首先通过固定效应模型探讨了数字经济与省域创新质量的直接关系，并进一步引入工具变量解决模型内生性问题。其次，利用中介效应模型与门槛回归模型分别探究了融资约束、交易成本以及外商直接投资约束下，数字经济对创新质量的间接影响与非线性效应。研究发现：数字经济对创新质量表现出显著积极的直接作用，作用效果呈现出“中部地区>西部地区>东部地区”的区域分布特点；数字经济可以通过缓解融资约束、减少交易成本间接提高省域创新质量，而在外商直接投资路径上则存在“遮掩效应”；基于省域异质性，数字经济对创新质量存在多样化阈值效应，在宽松的融资约束、较低的交易成本以及适度的外商直接投资水平下，数字经济能够发挥更加有利的积极影响。研究结论对政府制定省域差异化政策以及构造良好的数字环境具有一定的参考价值。

Improving the quality of innovation is a big step for China to achieve the goal of becoming an innovation power. The digital economy has become a strategic medium to promote innovation development. In this paper, the patent citations, more recognized internationally, are taken as a proxy for innovation quality, and digital economy development index is measured by the CRITIC-G1-Bonferroni operator from three aspects, i.e. the digital environment, digital industrialization, and industrial digitalization. Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2011 to 2019, this paper first explores the direct relationship between the digital economy and provincial innovation quality through the fixed effect model and further introduces instrumental variables to solve the endogeneity. At the same time, the mediating effect model and the threshold regression model are adopted to test the indirect and nonlinear effects of the digital economy on innovation quality under the moderation of financing constraints,transaction costs, and foreign direct investment. The results show that the digital economy has a significant positive direct effect on innovation quality, and the effect decreases in the order of the central region, western region, and eastern region. Additionally, the digital economy can indirectly improve the quality of provincial innovation by easing financing constraints and reducing transaction costs, but it has a masking effect on the path of foreign direct investment. Finally, based on provincial heterogeneity, the digital economy has different threshold effects on innovation quality. Under the conditions of loose financing constraints, low regional transaction costs, and moderate foreign direct investment, the digital economy can exert a more favorable positive impact. This paper provides some reference value for the government to formulate regional differential policies and construct a favorable digital environment.