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CEPA促进了两地(香港和中国内地)贸易,是否也改变了两地贸易对香港经济增长的影响机制?本文对CEPA实施前后两地贸易和香港经济增长进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,CEPA实施以来,两地贸易在香港经济中的地位更为显著,但其作用受到国内外经济增长因素的影响。原因在于,CEPA更显著地促使转口贸易成为国内外经济增长对香港溢出的重要渠道,而不在于直接拉动符合CEPA优惠条款的贸易部分,这反映出市场主体在实施CEPA以来的乐观预期。
Abstract：CEPA promotes the trade between Hong Kong and Chinese mainland.However,does it also change the influence of the trade on Hongkong Economic Growth? This paper studies the relationship between the trade and Hongkong's economic growth before and after the implementation of CEPA.The analysis shows that the importance of the trade become greater after CEPA's implementation,but it is affected by international macroeconomic situations.The reason is that CEPA promotes the entrepot to be an important channel of economic growth spillovers to Hongkong rather than promotes the trade which benefit from preferential terms.The result reflects the optimistic expectation after CEPA's implementation.
①见CEPA正文第一章“总则”和第二章“货物贸易”部分。
①参见香港政府统计处网站:http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/index_flash_sc.htm。
②参见国家统计局网站http://www.stats.gov.cn。
③参见美国商务部经济分析局网站http://www.bea.gov。
①参见http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hong_kong_statistics/statistics_by_subject/glossary/external_trade/index_tc.jsp#48690
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2012.03.010
中图分类号:F127
引用信息:
[1]周泳宏.CEPA改变了两地贸易对香港经济增长的影响吗?[J].统计研究,2012,29(03):61-66.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2012.03.010.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金(71103075);; 广东省自然科学基金(9451009001002715)的资助