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本文利用1998—2012年中国30个省份的空间面板数据,采用Moran‘s I和Geary’s C指数对FDI与雾霾(PM2.5)污染进行了探索性空间数据分析,并基于EKC假说构建了空间面板数据模型,将经济地理嵌套权重矩阵、经济地理权重矩阵纳入静态和动态空间面板模型进行分析。实证结果发现:(1)相对于静态空间面板模型,动态空间计量模型能更为准确地拟合FDI对我国雾霾(PM2.5)浓度的影响过程,雾霾(PM2.5)污染表现出显著的"叠加效应"和"溢出效应"。(2)在经济地理嵌套权重矩阵和经济地理权重矩阵下,FDI流量每升高1%,PM2.5浓度分别升高0.0174%和0.0161%。FDI存量每升高1%,PM2.5浓度分别升高0.0177%和0.0163%,表明FDI是导致雾霾(PM2.5)浓度升高的影响因素之一,说明了我国目前吸引和利用FDI离环保目标的最优水平还有一定距离。
Abstract：The paper studied the global and regional spatial correlation of PM2.5 concentration and FDI in China through Moran‘s I and Geary's C index by using the panel data of 30 Chinese provinces during 1998—2012. This paper built a spatial panel data model,and brought the geographic distance weight matrix as well as the economic geography weight matrix into static and dynamic spatial panel model based on the EKC hypothesis,and separately investigated the results in both whole sample and the regional samples. The estimate of whole sample showed:( 1) Compared with static panel model,dynamic spatial panel model could be more accurate in fitting of FDI influence on the China' s haze( PM2.5 ) concentration,and the empirical results showed that"Superimposed effect"、"Spillover effect"played significant role in PM2.5 pollution.( 2) In the setting of economic geography nested set weight matrix and the economic geography weight matrix,FDI's impact on PM2.5 concentrations all exhibit different degrees of promoting efficiency under two kinds of weighting: An 1%increase in FDI flow under the conditions of two weighting setting,PM2.5 concentrations will increase 0. 0174%and 0. 0161% respectively; An 1% increase in FDI stock under the two weighting settings, PM2.5 concentrations will increase 0. 0177% and 0. 0163% respectively,which showed that FDI was one of the factors that led haze( PM2.5 ) concentration rises,the conclusion implied that making full use of FDI can be improved to achieve the environmental protection target in China.
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(1)由于滞后因变量只能用于SAR和SDM模型,所以本文采用SAR随机效应模型进行空间动态面板检验。
(1)限于篇幅,本文没有以表格形式呈现FDI与PM2.5的单位根检验结果和格兰杰检验结果,有兴趣的读者可以向作者索取。
基本信息:
DOI：10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2017.05.007
中图分类号:F832.6;X51
引用信息:
[1]严雅雪,齐绍洲.外商直接投资与中国雾霾污染[J].统计研究,2017,34(05):69-81.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2017.05.007.
2017-05-15
2017-05-15