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最低工资标准制度是保障低收入劳动者根本权益的主要措施之一,进一步完善最低工资增长机制有利于缓解劳资纠纷与矛盾。由于我国区域发展不均衡,最低工资增长机制具有显著的时空非平稳性。本文基于2006—2014年省级时空数据,分别利用时间加权回归模型(TWR)、地理加权回归模型(GWR)及时空地理加权回归模型(GTWR)探测我国最低工资增长机制的非平稳性。实证研究表明:GTWR在模型拟合优度和优良性上表现最优;GTWR估计结果显示大部分解释变量的正负效应与预期一致,时间波动性较强,具有明显的空间非平稳性,被解释变量残差不存在明显的分布偏态性。本文认为逐步建立与职工平均工薪、人均GDP挂钩的固定周期性最低工资增长机制,加快建立具有地方特色的最低工资标准统计测算模型,是完善最低工资增长机制的关键。
Abstract：The minimum wages standard policy is one of the main measures to protect the fundamental rights of low-income laborers. Consummating the growth mechanism of minimum wages is beneficial to easing the labor dispute and contradiction. The spatial-temporal nonstationarity of the growth mechanism of minimum wages is evident because of the regional differences. Based on the panel data of provincial regions in China from2006 to 2014,Temporally Weighted Regression( TWR),Geographically Weighted Regression( GWR) and geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression( GTWR) were used to measure spatial-temporal nonstationarity of the growth mechanism of minimum wages. The empirical results showed that GTWR performs better than other models on goodness-of-fit and model goodness,and the signs of most explanatory variables of GTWR are consistent with the expected,and the strong time volatility and spatial nonstationarity are showed,the skewness of the distribution of predictors' residuals is not evident. In my opinion,we ought to establish gradually a fixed periodic growth mechanism of minimum wages which is linked to the average wages and GDP per capita and the statistic and estimate model of minimum wages which is concerned with the local conditions.
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(1)在日本,最低工资标准调整一般先由中央议会(Central Council)根据不同地区的实际情况给出“最低工资标准增长参考值”(Guideline Increases),然后由地方议会(Regional Council)根据参考值确定实际的调整幅度。
(1)国内外学者均从不同角度验证了最低工资标准与失业之间存在相关关系,而针对失业对最低工资产生促进还是抑制作用这一问题,学术界一直争论不休,尚未得出一个明确的结论。
(1)韩兆洲等(2006,2007)[1][16]通过对我国35个大中城市的最低工资标准进行实证研究发现:绝大部分城市最低工资标准都不能同步于人均GDP、职工平均工资的增速,其中,90%以上的大中城市最低工资标准与职工平均工资的比例系数处于30%~40%,甚至还有小部分城市低于30%,而国际平均水平为40%~60%。这一结论与本文的结论是一致的。
基本信息:
DOI：10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2017.06.004
中图分类号:F224;F249.24
引用信息:
[1]韩兆洲,林仲源.我国最低工资增长机制时空非平稳性测度研究[J].统计研究,2017,34(06):38-51.DOI:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2017.06.004.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金重点项目“SNA2008:中国R&D支出纳入GDP核算研究”(15ATJ001);; 中国劳动保障科学研究院科研合作项目“完善最低工资增长机制研究”(LKY-2016jx-14)的资助
2017-06-15
2017-06-15