统计研究

本文基于百度迁徙大数据研究我国劳动力的空间流动,系统考察地理和文化对劳动力流动的影响。通过构造流动机会比率,基于引力模型和普通最小二乘法的研究表明地理距离和方言距离阻碍劳动力流动:在空间距离上,劳动力偏好邻近城市,地理距离每增加1%,劳动力的流动机会比率降低约0.6%;在空间位置上,劳动力倾向于在方言文化相近的地域范围内流动,方言距离每增加1%,劳动力的流动机会比率下降2%左右。通过构造两地年均降水量差距和小麦种植适宜度差距作为方言距离的工具变量,以两阶段最小二乘法估计缓解内生性问题,估计显示结论稳健;考虑普通话因素后方言距离的抑制影响依然稳健,但目的地的高普通话普及率显著发挥促进劳动力流动的引力作用。最后,本文得出持续推广普通话、加强交通建设和深化中等教育的政策建议。

This paper studies the impacts of geographical distances and dialect difference on spatial mobility of labor in China in a systematic way by using Baidu big data. Based on a gravity model and the ordinary least square method(OLS), it is found that both geographical distance and dialect difference inhibit the labor mobility through construction of ratio of mobility opportunity. In terms of spatial distance, labor prefers to move to nearby cities. The ratio of labor mobility opportunity decreases by about 0.6% if the geographic distance increases by 1%. In terms of spatial location, labor is inclined to move to the areas in similar dialects. The ratio of labor mobility opportunity falls by around 2% if dialect difference is added by 1%. To alleviate the potential endogeneity, by constructing the gaps of rainfalls and wheat planting suitability between two cities chosen as instrumental variables for dialect difference, two stage least square method(2 SLS) shows the result is robust. Furthermore, taking into account the standard Mandarin, the inhibition effect by dialect difference is still robust while the high popularity of the standard Mandarin plays a significant gravity role in attracting labor mobility in the destination. It proposes that popularizing the standard Mandarin, expanding traffic construction and promoting secondary education be the options for policy makers.